Monday, January 3, 2011 Cyclical Forecasts For The New Year! by Larry Edelson D
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Jan 03, 2011 10:37AM
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Monday, January 3, 2011 Cyclical Forecasts For The New Year! by Larry Edelson |
Dear Subscriber,
First off, Happy New Year to all! It's amazing how quickly time flies, that's for sure. I can remember the turn of the century like it was yesterday, and here we are already entering the 11th year of the 21st century. Amazing. Right now, I'm still analyzing the year-end closings in all markets to determine the annual trend and momentum signals they generated, which will set the tone for 2011. But from the analysis I've done so far, I can tell you with complete confidence that ... If you correctly navigate the markets in 2011, you stand to make more money than ever before! Why am I so confident? Simple ... First, my cyclical and technical models have worked expertly for almost 30 years, and near flawlessly for the last 10 years. So I have no doubt they will guide me in helping you outperform the markets again this year. Second, they have always warned me in advance — and hence you — of big moves in the markets, and they are doing so again. Third, unlike so many other analysts' models, mine do not rely on old economic rules, market relationships that existed in another time and place, and that most investors and analysts still use today, but which are DEAD wrong for the times.
Fourth, my models are dynamic, global in nature, free of biases, fully sensitive to the complex interrelationships that exist today in capital markets, asset classes, and most of all, the currency markets, which are the glasses through which millions of investors see the world, and often, from very different perspectives. And ... Fifth, my models are able to pinpoint when the major turning points for the year are going to occur, in advance! For instance, right now I can tell you that ... The broad stock markets will likely make the following pattern this year: An important low on February 24 ... followed by a high (likely for the year) on May 3 ... and a lower low than the February low on July 18. You can see the broad rhythms via this chart I prepared for you here.
Importantly, both the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 closed out 2010 in a neutral trend and momentum status, indicating that the March 2009 lows were the lows for the financial crisis, and that new record highs will be seen in the broad stock markets, but not until at least 2012. If you look at the cycle chart, though, you won't want to be overly invested in stocks this month, but should be looking to play a rally between the end of February, going into early May. A second down leg should then be expected heading into mid-July, and then, a powerful 2011 year-end rally. Now, consider ... Gold: Interestingly, the cyclical 2011 picture for gold is very similar to the broad stock markets. Expect the current softness in gold to last until the end of this month, followed by a rally into late March, which will most likely not produce a new record high. If gold does make a new record high come March, it will not be substantially above the 2010 high, and likely not breach the $1,500 mark.
From March 23 into July 4, gold should be on the weak side again. But thereafter, especially from October to December of this year, gold should take off like a rocket ship, likely reaching the $2,000 level. You can see gold's cyclical 2011 picture above. Next ... The U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar will not do much this year. That is, until late July. The action will most likely find the dollar trending sideways with a slightly bullish bias for the first seven months of the year. I do not expect the dollar to gain much during that period.
However, come late July and heading into the end of this year, THE DOLLAR IS LIKELY TO CRASH TO NEW RECORD LOWS. It will lose value against every currency on the planet during that period (except gold). And the decline I expect in the buck in the last two quarters of this year will usher in a redesign of the world's monetary system in 2012, where I fully expect the dollar to truly begin losing its status as the world's reserve currency. Also important to note: The sovereign debt crisis that is now hitting Europe will very likely begin hitting the United States sometime in July 2011. Which brings me to the next asset class ... U.S. bond markets and interest rates: Despite all the gloom about U.S. bond prices ... and despite the fact that I, too, am bearish on bonds, I do not see a crash occurring in the bond markets until the last quarter of this year.
The current decline in bond prices should end just 10 days from now, on January 13. Then, bond prices, in general, should largely trade sideways for several months. I do see bond prices collapsing — and interest rates soaring starting in September of this year. Interestingly, this pattern is correlating quite nicely with the dollar cycles above, and my forecast that the sovereign debt crisis will not hit the United States until much later this year. So how do you play these cyclical forecasts for these critical markets? Certainly, that's the key question. And here are my basic guidelines ... First, and foremost, even if the broad stock markets manage to eke out a few more gains, get the heck out of most stocks as soon as you can. There is likely to be a very sharp and surprising down move in stocks in the first two months of this year. Do not, I repeat, do not exit any core gold holdings or core natural resource stocks. If you have funds to speculate with, consider buying the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH). But use a tight stop, and look to take profits around February 24. Second, do not get overly aggressive in gold until later this month, and wait for my signals! Gold is not likely to do anything for a few more weeks. It can stage a strong mid-year rally, but then it will succumb to some summer softness before really taking off at the end of the year. You will want to navigate the expected swings in gold with as accurate timing as possible, because there will be a lot of money to be made on gold's moves. For now, only trade this market if you are a short-term speculator. Hold core positions for the long term. Third, steer clear of the bond markets, even though the cycles are not yet that bearish on them. Chief reason: They remain the most vulnerable asset class to the sovereign debt crisis, and when it hits, you don't want to be anywhere near bonds. So simply stay away from the bond markets, period. Fourth, for all of my timing signals, consider a membership to Real Wealth Report. There's simply no substitute. I guarantee it. For just $99 a year, you get all of my recommendations, flash alerts, specific buy and sell signals, analysis and more. Considering we are just a few days into 2011, now is a perfect time to join. Just click here now. Best wishes, La |