Good year ahead for fertilizer stocks

2011 will be a solid year for fertilizer producers including Canadian rivals Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. thanks to tight phosphate and potash markets and inventory re-stocking by distributors, Keith Carpenter, a Canaccord Genuity analyst says.

“The situation bodes well for fertilizer equities over coming quarters,” the analyst said, raising price targets on both names as well as Mosaic Co., another North American fertilizer giant.

Mr. Carpenter said in a note to clients that tight grain supplies will remain an important story line in the first half of 2011.

He believes that the current harvest season in the southern hemisphere, which has been hit hard by scorching temperatures in countries like Argentina, is forcing the northern hemisphere to grow stronger crops in order to shore up supply.

In doing so, more fertilizer will be needed and Mr. Carpenter expects margins for phosphate and potash to increase and higher prices for both as the year progresses.

The analyst now expects Potash Corp. to hit US$185 (from US$175 previously) and Agrium to hit US$108 (from US$105). His new target for Mosaic is US$96 up from US$82.