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Message: Notes from Don Coxe's weekly conference call (1.14.11)

For what its worth below are the notes from the Coxe conference call. After some of you read this I probably will be the next one "to bite the dust" so to speak or "hit the road Jack" similar to Wolfster. LOL (I think he's moving his PM holdings down a notch.)

1/14/11 Don Coxe Conference Call

· Perceptions are changing at least in the US market. Paradox as perceptions seem to be getting stronger for the US yet India and Shanghai markets peaked in December. The Fed’s great liquidity push is good for stocks and bonds but you need to enjoy it while it lasts.

· Gold knocked down sharply in a short period of time. Gold is flat with CRB now but had greatly outperformed it just a short time ago.

· What is evolving here in the US is that folks feel like the worst is behind us and that things are going to get better. This change in sentiment occurred after Obama reached a deal with the Republicans (e.g., tax deal). People are feeling better now about the President being able to deliver. This positive feeling has taken away the lure of gold at least for the time being.

· In the near term you should have a neutral position in gold/silver with regard to the rest of the commodities (e.g., oil, agriculture). Agriculture sector “is really quite amazing.” Can’t recall anything like we are now seeing with regard to the grain situation. E.g., price of corn has doubled. Wheat, soybean, corn and cotton prices are “truly spectacular.” He thinks there is more to come here with the agriculture. This sector just has “fabulous fundamentals.” Carry over of these grains is the lowest in 15 years. The most amazing development over the last year by far is what has happened with the grains.

· What could go wrong with the new confidence in the US? Coxe thinks it is due to the feeling that our President is stronger. But this is emotional and the fundamentals have not really changed. E.g., the foreclosures this year will be the highest ever which will be a drag on our economy and on the banks. Accelerated increase in foreclosures will once again drag down the house prices. Remember that the average equity in houses is around 2.5% so think of what will happen if house values fall again – you could end up with the general population having no equity in their homes. Carryover of this foreclosure means there is still plenty of risk and this means that we still need some exposure to the precious metals.

· PM place in the commodity portfolio is to be the bad news part as if all things go wrong, gold will be the one thing that moves up. Not sure how long this adjustment will take but is “very confident” that at some time this year folks will need gold again.

· His advice is to enjoy this stock market rally while we can....don’t miss it.

· Notwithstanding the rise in the commodity prices they are not yet at a level where they could threaten growth at least in the developed countries.

· The best thing to do is to “float with the tide” and the tide is with the printing press here in the states and in Europe.

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