John Hathaway Interview on Kingworld News - my notes FWTW
posted on
Jan 23, 2011 09:31AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Below are my notes for what they're worth (FWTH) from the interview. I must admit that I like this man and own his fund in my 401K (TGLDX which yahoo says is up 50.77% YTD) because he holds around 10% in actual buillion, invests also in the junior space and it is a no load. Link to actual interview follows.
1/22/11 – John Hathaway Kingworld interview – head of Tocqueville Gold Fund
· PM are currently in a period of consolidation. We are probably a good way through it but he still needs to see it play out a bit further. Thinks what happened is at end of year big funds bought PMs so as to show gold in their portfolio and this is now unwinding. This to him is “just noise.” The things that are driving gold are still alive and well.
· Mentions that a well known writer said we should sell gold so the weak hands continue to be shaken out. (Think he means Dennis Gartman)
· The more important point is that inflation is starting to uptick even using the woefully inadequate CPI number and we have negative interest rates. By spring of this year we will still see the economy still stuck which will open the door to more QE. Labor market will continue to stay weak which will also drive QE. Same issues facing Europe so whether you hold EUROs or dollars, good reason to look at gold.
· There is a rising tide of demand for the physical regardless of the paper trading on the COMEX. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a big short covering rally in the spring of this year. Thinks the bankers in London and NY are “basically out to lunch” and they just don’t get it because they read the same wrong research reports.
· I’ve always thought that even someone like me who is so bullish may be surprised at how this ends up being played out.
· Silver is almost like a small cap stock compared to gold so it is more volatile.
· Is gold a crowded trade? He says it sure is popular although he doesn’t know if that equates to a crowded trade. Later on in the interview he says that we are nowhere near what gold was in 1980 and given that would answer that it is not a crowded trade.
· In 1980, gold stood at 22% of financial assets. Today the most recent number shows it is more around 5%. This shows we are a long way from “being over cooked.”
· Monetary system is breaking down. China is saying that the dollars best days are over which is really a big thing coming from the US’s biggest trading partner.
· Gold will have to come back into the monetary system at some point to give the fiat currencies credibility. It will be valued at a big number. You are seeing more and more people giving this serious consideration. Price of gold would have to be in high 4 digits.
· Expect to see lots of takeovers of juniors as we did last year.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/1/22_John_Hathaway.html