Plus: Actionable In Colorado, Nicaragua, Mexico & Panama

OFF TO AFRICA – When I was younger and working in London as a markets editor, I learned the value of using “reputables,” as I named them, to diagnose the equity state of a region.

Africa is a continent with hundreds of active gold, platinum group metals and copper miners and prospectors. (I number here only publicly-traded equities and am not counting rare earths or molybdenum, diamonds, etc.) Some of those prospectors and miners, examined in research compiled more than a year ago by writer Barry Sergeant in Johannesburg, have risen several thousand percent in equity price from their lows (since the start of 2009). These include Pelangio Exploration (TSX: V.PX, Stock Forum) in Ghana; Zimbabwe’s New Dawn Mining (TSX: T.ND, Stock Forum); and African Gold Group (TSX: V.AGG, Stock Forum) in Mali and Ghana.

Others have not budged. I tend to employ in my research “reputables” whose principals I know personally. I have been on a tour with Canaco’s (TSX: V.CAN, Stock Forum) Andy Smith, although not in his company’s jurisdiction of Tanzania. Canaco Resources shares have risen so high so fast, I no longer wish to calculate the percentage gain over two years.

Had I followed Andy’s kind guidance in May 2010, when he as a director of Candente Gold (TSX: T.CDG, Stock Forum) accompanied us on a tour of El Oro in Mexico, and bought Canaco shares … well, look at the chart for yourselves.

Canaco is reputable, of that there is little doubt. It has negotiated its way through the tangle of Tanzania red tape in admirable fashion. Peter Kennedy at Stockhouse tells us in his reporting that Canaco is widely expected to prove up a gold resource at its Magambazi prospect. Magambazi is working as many as four drill rigs for definition drilling. Andy tells me this week a scheduled tour of the property later this week “filled up immediately” with analysts.

THIN SKINS: The Caribou mine I just toured in Colorado has gone the rounds so many times, no one on planet North America, with the exception of FOUR-DECADE operator Tom Hendricks, can tick off the successive companies that gained and lost the THIN-VEIN deposit to lenders, banks, other companies and bankruptcy courts.

I am on record as saying that Calais Resources (OTO: CAAUF, Stock Forum) will repeat the rapid-fire equity rise we last catalogued in a similar silver-gold mine developer: Comstock Mining (OTO: BB: LODE, Stock Forum). I know folks, mostly Ticker Trax subscribers, who cleaned up on Comstock stock during a three-month span this past autumn. Comstock stock has since lost the “hot money” trade.

This Calais, too, is speculative and dependent on raising new equity and retiring old debt. At Calais, I expect 61-year-old Mr. Hendricks, an underground miner his entire life, and his executive team, will produce a sturdy and Canada-compliant resource statement for the property and its 100-plus veins. As soon as this week.

Calais shares will accelerate even further now that we have broadcast the particulars of the debt-laden resurrection to the Stockhouse audience. Whether the 16-cent (now 31 cents) shares get beyond fair value of approximately 60 cents USA or so, a level that could be attained in two weeks or less, depends on the resolving of $11 million of notes to Brigus Gold (TSX: T.BRD, Stock Forum) … and the price new investors will have to pay to purchase what almost surely will be an equity placement in coming weeks. See the entire coverage.

I can guarantee three things about Calais: the company will change its name. The company will not be allowing any more Hollywood film crews on the property for set shoots, including one B-movie in the early ‘80s featuring Margaux Hemingway. Oh, and CEO and Chairman David Russell, who has a mixed record on making investors money, vowed to raise no equity at the stock price when I toured the property last week; that price was about 16 cents and traveling into a tailwind headed northeast, like most of these underground veins appear to be directed. Calais shares on the USA Pink Sheets are higher now and destined for loftier levels as the company solves the debt load and published its 43-101 summary of historic gold resources. I do not own any.

Goldgroup Mining: Those who decided to purchase Goldgroup Mining (TSX: T.GGA, Stock Forum) after our on-site report (see review of Caballo Blanco here) have years’ worth of developments ahead. GGA is a keeper for the ages. Now that the shares are fair value at approx. $1.60 Canadian, investors will await assay results from Holes 69 and 70 at Caballo Blanco. Thanks to Keith Piggott and his team, along with new director Dr. Paul Zweng, we have a very good interpretation for the length of mineralized intercept for one of those holes. The unknown is how high the gold and silver grades will be.

Still, having examined the core from these holes, along with the dirt at those drilling two sites, I think I see a Mexican piñata crammed with rich rock. The coming grades, based on several rounds of previous drill results and the fact these two holes are near the highest elevation of the seaside Caballo Blanco property at La Paila, might set the bar for what likely will evolve into the next Osisko … or Goldcorp (GG) … of Mexico. I do not own the shares. We have been tracking GGA since late November 2011. I hope to see its two other Mexico properties in coming months. GGA just unveiled further drill results from its San Jose de Gracia project in Mexico. Please see our password-protected library and our Stockhouse coverage for more.

Fresh jurisdictions: Anything in Nicaragua and Panama likely will perform well in coming months as those two nations exhibit open-arm policies to gold and copper miners. Panama especially is improving the way its mining bureau administers privately held swatches of land on the Azuero Peninsula. I have been to Panama and expect to see Nicaragua later this year.

We also are likely to see activity in shares of companies prospecting in parts of Africa that are mostly missing from the beaten junior-miners’ claim and exploration maps. These include Rwanda for gold, with Quentin Hennigh as a consultant for Simba Gold (TSX: V.ITA.P, Stock Forum); and perhaps in Mozambique for tantalum. The Indaba yearly gathering of Africa miners is taking place this week in Cape Town, RSA. James Turk, a friend and economist living now in Spain, will speak Wednesday. I am skipping the conference in favor of packing in an extra property tour. I will be in Johannesburg and elsewhere on the continent later this week and all next week.

• We are off this week to Africa to see three companies and their various properties in South Africa, Mali and Ghana. They are Great Basin Gold (TSX: T.GBG, Stock Forum) in Republic of South Africa, African Gold Group (TSX: V.AGG, Stock Forum) in Mali and Ghana and one or two other companies. I own shares of GBG. I also own shares of Candente Gold, cited in this article.
• Congratulations to Robert Archer and his team at Great Panther Silver (TSX: T.GPR and GPL on Amex). Great Panther is now trading in the USA on the AMEX. I noted several months ago when last I saw CEO Archer that his company and its Mexico success were hijacking my portfolio. Well, nothing about that has changed. The company operates primary silver mines with byproducts in Guanajuato and in the state of Durango. Great Panther, along with next-door neighbor Endeavour Silver (TSX: T.EDR, Stock Forum) and (AMEX: EXK, Stock Forum), have been among our best Ticker Trax performers over a 27-month span. Endeavour, by the way, is producing a couple of educational videos for silver investors and just plain silver aficionados. One of them, “A Day in the Life of a Silver Mine,” will show investors what happens in a silver mine – after you get past the statuettes of Mother Mary and Baby Jesus at the entrances. That comes out in March. A second sometime in April will examine “Silver – Global Supply & Demand.”