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Message: Re: Looks like Peter - Chris - MGO.to

Mar 25, 2011 09:25AM

Mar 25, 2011 10:17AM

Mar 25, 2011 11:27AM

Mar 25, 2011 11:37AM

I have been looking to load up on more MGO lately as well. If its of any help Keystone really likes them as well and has a buy rating out on them as they are increasing production this year.

"CONCLUSION
Migao’s Q3 fiscal 2011 revenues missed consensus expectations, but the short-fall was largely due to a lower temporary natural gas shortage at the Sichuan facility which actually shut down production for a period. The revenue shortfall was offset to a large degree by stronger product pricing and margins. In fact, Migao’s gross profit margin
was 25.6% of revenue for the third quarter, exceeding the company’s targeted 22-24% range. Gross margin for the first nine months of fiscal 2011 also exceeded expectations at 25.3%. The improved gross margin is a result of favourably priced purchases of the raw material potassium chloride, combined with increased selling prices of finished goods. EBITDA for the third quarter of fiscal 2011 increased to $11.9 million, or 18.5%, of revenues versus $11.6 million, or 17.3%, of revenues for the same period last year.
After working through around 15 months of stagnant production, growth appears to be back on the horizon for Migao and earnings estimates are once again on the rise. The market is expecting global potash prices to continue to strengthen over the course of 2011. With potash being Migao’s primary input cost (raw material) one might expect pressure on margins moving forward; however, we do not see that scenario playing out as Migao has been able to historically generate stable gross margins (in the 22-24% range in up and down pricing environments) on sales of potash-based fertilizer products by passing on higher input costs via higher selling prices. If we apply a relatively stable gross margin to rising prices of its primary products, it should translate to ongoing increases to gross profit. Factor in Migao’s rising production profile, the case for earnings growth becomes more compelling. Additionally, the company’s solid financial position and access to capital should allow the company to expand beyond its current plans, if the right opportunities present themselves. Management recently stated that the improvements to pricing and demand throughout the fertilizer industry over the past couple of months will positively influence the current quarter (Q4 2011) as prices for the period ended December 31, 2010, did not reflect these price increases due to prior sales commitments. The company expects increased sales volume in Q4 2011, including production from the new joint venture with SQM as well as the likelihood of delivering product at the end of March from its new Shanghai facility. We expect this strength
to continue into 2011. The long-term growth story remains the same as when we originally recommended Migao back in 2006. China’s citizens continue to benefit from strong economic growth, the demand for improved crop yield, higher quality food, and increased variety, which is fuelling the growth of the fertilizer market in China. The company’s specialty fertilizers increase yield, enhance the quality of the crops they are applied to, and provide a higher return to farmers, allowing Migao to continue experiencing high demand for its potash-based products in the PRC. For fiscal 2011 (current year) the consensus estimate is now $0.69 per share and if we look out to fiscal 2012 (this coming year), the estimate is now $0.92 per share (a figure we believe could be handsomely exceeded given the right conditions). We expect Migao to earn $0.95 per share in fiscal 2012. As such, Migao trades at a reasonable 11.86 times this years’ expected EPS and an attractive 8.62 times next years’ expected earnings with a solid balance sheet. Migao remains on our Focus BUY list and is attractive in the near term and long term in its current range or below."

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