Notes for what they're worth....

Don Coxe Institutional Call 3/25/11

· Last week it was Japan, this week the focus is on the Middle East or more aptly put, the war in Libya although the word “war” is not used in the U.S

· By the time the US and rest of world decided to put on a no fly zone, Qadaffi was firmly entrenched

· Difficult to get troops to give their lives when we are being told that our intent is not to take out Qadaffi, a cruel and merciless dictator. No one is then sure what the goal is.

· What we also found this week is that the oil companies had to pay the fines for the Lockerbie bombing incident although it was a fine against Qadaffi.

· The Egyptian revolt was supposed to be a good story. We are now finished with the good story and from now on, the news will get a lot worse. The young liberals in Egypt who were rioting are not going to be part of the new Egyptian government but instead the Muslim Brotherhood is stepping into form a government.

· This is not a situation where the dancing in the streets should be by those who believe in liberty.

· Israel is becoming increasingly isolated.

· Looks like trouble in Europe is now spreading to Spain. Over 30 Spanish banks were downgraded this week. Spain’s housing boom was even bigger than the US….it is way over built.

· German populace is very upset with Angela Merkel’s support of the Euro zone.

· Japan could be a good news story for commodities as they have to rebuild the country.

· Commodity story is good - We have $105 oil & grains are on a tear. For commodity investors this may be close to the best of times. There is no sign that they are topping out. The inflation psychology has yet to take hold and when it does, commodities will be even more important for investors.

· Japan’s production shutdown is in the short term negative for oil but this is offset by the fact that Libya’s oil is shutdown. As Japan comes back, the oil demand will certainly increase since so much of their energy is imported.

· As to precious metals, there is so much bad news out there and given the total supply of all the money out there that it makes forl a good story for the precious metals. Money is being printed at “an outstanding rate.” The story for inflation is really strong and people will want to own PM as this becomes more clear.

· Looks like Canada is going to have an election soon. Canada has prospered under Harper. So we will just have to see what happens.