International
Lead and Zinc Study Group
Rua Almirante Barroso, nr 38, 5th floor, 1000-013 Lisbon, Portugal
PRESS RELEASE
Lisbon, 14 April 2011
ILZSG SPRING 2011 MEETINGS/FORECASTS
1. The Standing Committee of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group held its
Spring meetings in Lisbon on 13 April 2011 under the Chairmanship of Mr. Bard
Dagestad (Norway). During the meeting the Committee received a review of the
current outlook for trends in world supply and demand for lead and zinc during
2011.
2. The Committee noted that global economic uncertainties, including the impact of
the tragic events in Japan and, to a lesser extent, disturbances in the Middle East and
North Africa, underlined the need for caution when considering forward‐looking
forecasts.
3. This was followed by a meeting of the ILZSG Industry Advisory Panel and of the
Economic and Environment Committee under the acting Chairmanship of Mr. Doug
Panagapko (Canada).
Forecasts
Lead ‐ Outlook for 2011
Usage
4. Global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to increase by 5.5% to 10.04 million
tonnes in 2011. Increased sales and exports of both original equipment and
replacement lead‐acid batteries together with higher demand from the e‐bike sector
are expected to result in a further rise in Chinese usage of 8.6%. In Europe, it is
anticipated that usage will rise by 6.3% and in the United States, by 1.7%.
5. Though the impact of the recent Tohoku earthquake on future lead demand in Japan
is difficult to quantify at the present time, any variation from the current Japanese
usage forecast of a 2.2% rise is not expected to be large enough in absolute terms to
significantly alter the current outlook for global demand.
Supply
6. An expected increase in global lead mine production of 7.8% to 4.46 million tonnes
will be primarily driven by higher output in Australia, China, India, Ireland, Mexico
and the Russian Federation. However, the Group notes that output in Australia may
ultimately be lower than forecast should the Magellan mine in Western Australia, at
which operations were recently voluntarily suspended by Ivernia for environmental
reasons, remain closed for a prolonged period.
7. At 10.16 million tonnes, it is anticipated that world production of refined lead metal
will be 6.1% above that recorded in 2010.
8. This increase will be influenced by the opening of a significant volume of new
capacity in China together with the commissioning of Hindustan Zinc’s Rajpura
Dariba operation in Rajasthan, India and Johnson Controls’ Enertec plant in
Monterrey, Mexico. In addition, Australian production is expected to recover after a
reduction in 2010 caused by technical problems at Nyrstar’s Port Pirie smelter.
World Refined Lead Metal Balance
9. After having taken into account the latest forecasts received from the Group’s
Member Countries and their industry advisors it is currently expected that global
supply of refined lead metal will exceed demand by 123,000 tonnes in 2011.
Zinc ‐ Outlook for 2011
Usage
10. Global demand for refined zinc metal is forecast to increase by 6.3% to 13.4 million
tonnes in 2011.
11. In China, demand growth is expected to remain strong but, at 9.4%, is expected to be
lower than in 2010. This is mainly as a consequence of government measures to limit
the pace of economic expansion and control inflation. In Europe and the United
States rises of 4.4% and 6.6% respectively are anticipated.
12. In Japan, the current forecast indicates that usage will increase by 1.9%. However, it
is likely that this will be revised when it becomes possible to fully take into account
the consequences for zinc demand of the Tohoku earthquake and necessary
reconstruction initiatives.
Supply
13. In 2011, new zinc mine capacity is scheduled to be brought on stream in a number
of countries including Australia, Canada, India, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and
Uzbekistan. In addition, higher output is expected in China, Kazakhstan, Mexico, the
Russian Federation and the United States. This is forecast to result in further strong
growth in global production of 9.1% to 13.44 million tonnes.
14. An anticipated rise in world production of refined zinc metal of 5.6% to 13.59 million
tonnes will be principally driven by increases in China, India and Peru. Additions to
capacity in a number of provinces, including Shaanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Yunnan
are forecast to result in a rise in China of 9.2%. In India and Peru, rises in output will
be influenced by increased output at refineries recently commissioned at Rajpura
Dariba and Cajamarquilla.
World Refined Zinc Metal Balance
15. After having taken into account the latest information regarding zinc supply and
demand received from its Member Countries, the Group expects that, in 2011, the
global refined zinc market will remain in surplus for the fifth successive year. The
extent of the over‐supply is forecast at just under 200,000 tonnes.
September 2011 ILZSG Session
16. The Study Group confirmed that it will hold its 56th Session at the Altis Hotel in
Lisbon, Portugal from 29 ‐ 30 September 2011 preceded by a Joint Study Groups’
Seminar on 28 September 2011.
Economic and Environment Issues
17. The Study Group’s Economic and Environment Committee met on Wednesday 13
April under the acting Chairmanship of Mr. Doug Panagapko, (Canada). The
Committee was briefed on the use of lead in glass by an executive of the Libbey
Company. This was followed by a speaker from the International Zinc Association
who provided information on the latest developments in the zinc industry. A
presentation on Recent Developments on Regulations Affecting Lead was made by a
representative of the International Lead Association.
Joint Study Groups’ “Materials Stewardship for Mining
and Metals” Seminar
18. A Joint Study Groups’ Seminar was held on 13 April on the topic “Materials
Stewardship for Mining and Metals”. A keynote address was delivered by Dr. John
Atherton of the ICMM. Presentations providing information on a range of
stewardship initiatives involving nonferrous metals were made by government
representatives from Australia, Canada and the European Union. Industry
representatives from Rio Tinto and Stewardship Matters provided input from a
company and industry perspective. Speakers from the European Copper Institute,
the International Zinc Association, the Nickel Institute and the International Lead
Association promoted a metal by metal perspective and took part in a panel
discussion. Several recommendations were made on future work for the Study
Groups.
New Publications
19. ILZSG has recently published the following studies that are available from the
Secretariat:
• Lead and Zinc New Mine and Smelter Projects
• Use of Lead and Zinc in Batteries
Studies that will be published later in 2011 include:
• World Directory: Primary and Secondary Lead Plants
• Principal Uses of Lead and Zinc
• The Indian Lead Market
• Environmental and Health Controls on Lead
• Environmental and Health Controls on Zinc
ILZSG Website
20. Further information on the topics covered by this Press Release can be obtained on
the ILZSG web site at www.ilzsg.org or by contacting the Secretariat at
root@ilzsg.org.

go donner! [not part of the study]