Emerging markets were a spot-on leading indicator when stocks hit bottom two years ago and now they are shaping up as a reliable guide to a looming correction, says David Rosenberg, a chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates.

“Investors should be reminded that, as a group, the BRIC stock markets bottomed months before the S&P 500 did back in March 2009,” the well-known equity bear said in a note to clients Wednesday.

“These are the new leading indicators, and yet we see such little attention being paid to the extent to which these markets have rolled over from their nearby highs.”

To his point, India and Brazil are both down 12% since November, and China and Russia are down 8% and 10% over a similar time frame.

Mr. Rosenberg noted that the Canadian market, down another 150 points on Wednesday, is down more than 4% from its recent high and last saw 14,000 on April 8.

“The U.S. is hanging in,” he added, “but we do detect a recent shift in leadership towards the more defensive/rate sensitive groups like telecom, utilities, staples and now even the lagging financials.”

Mr. Rosenberg said it is normal to see massive rallies coming off “depressed bubble-bust lows,” like we have seen this cycle, but historically, these bull runs have been followed by big pullbacks.

Notably, the big gains made in 1930 and 1931 coming of the 1929 post-crash lows, were followed by new fundamental lows in 1932.

“Had it not been for 1932, we certainly would have been reading much more about the good times investors enjoyed in 1930 and 1931,” he wrote.

“How history treats 2010 and 2011 remains to be seen but as we flip chapters, the book on this post-bubble credit collapse is far from over.”