The classic signs of an approaching intermediate top in commodities have been around for some time: underperformance of the stocks relative to their commodities, underperformance of the commodity small caps (e.g., Venture versus TSX), USD nearing strong support. The most obvious was the massive volume on the SLV after a near-parabolic run. So the plunge in commodities last week should not have come as a huge surprise to anyone. For me, the surprise was the speed of it. I would have guessed a somewhat less rapid decent.

Silver: Technically broken, but due for a rebound rally. Looking at SLV, it could easily retrace half or more of the loss, so probably 40-43 is where I'll be looking to sell (I bought a lot of this Thursday & Friday). If the bounce is weak, and it falls back, I will bail on any close below 33. After the initial bounce, best guess is a decline to new lows followed by a multi-month consolidation period. I dislike consolidation periods, so I'll just watch from the sidelines then.

Oil & gold: Pretty much the same story as silver, although less severe. Because they did not go parabolic, the correction will likely not be as deep. Still, after the initial bounce, I don't expect a big move up anytime soon.

Venture: Chart is ugly as sin. Still underperforming TSX and volume has virtually collapsed. I'm staying away.

US markets: Still OK, but probably only another 3-4 weeks before it rolls over. I'm starting to reduce exposure.

Next week: Most everything is oversold, so we should get a decent bounce everywhere, but I think that it will be a selling opportunity. If we don't get the bounce, probably time to head for the hills!