http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/look-beyond-economics/

This is a good article - I especially like the ending:

One last comment: Prof Mankiw noted that “It is easier to attract with certainties than with equivocation.” Do not overlook a key underlying issue: The causal factor here is that the public wants certitude, regardless of how erroneous. Study after study has revealed that a “Frequently wrong, never in doubt” commentator is much preferred by the majority of viewers/readers over an intelligent commentator honestly discussing the unknowable future in terms of what is unknown and unknowable.

Probabilistic nuance versus strongly confident (but wrong)? The public chooses the latter almost every time.

You can see this not only in the ratings for various shows, but in the public’s investing performance. Its about as good as their favorite pundits are.

Which is to say, not very . . .