Regarding bank stocks, I think Olivier (and many others) have missed an important point. Normally, financials lead and the market cannot run without them. The crash of 08 and its aftermath was not normal. The financials were the focus of the bubble & crash, so they simply cannot lead this time. Just like the techs following the tech bubble could not lead the market in the aftermath.

After the initial pop March - Aug 09, the XLF has done nothing. So for the last 2 years, the market has run just fine without the financials. That could continue for years, methinks.

For leadership, I still look to the Venture (risk-on stocks).