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Message: Don Coxe weekly Institutional Call

He only made one mention about gold which I bolded for your reading pleasure. susan

Don Coxe 7/28/11

· President’s confrontational speech earlier in the week blaming all the Republicans and past administration made compromise difficult. Still believes something will be worked out as there are no signs of panic in any asset class. Even though gold is up there is not a panic rise. The President himself dealt himself out of this debate with that speech of his. That leaves Reid and Boehner having to work it out. He obviously thought that power had shifted to him and he wanted to wield power but it was too confrontational.

· If the things continue like they have for another couple of days there will be a DOW signal sell.

· News across the world points to a slowing economy….everywhere but India

· What’s most alarming is the big big inventory build ups. Tough to get a positive GDP number in this quarter. This is a changed world even from last week. What this does suggest is that we cannot afford to have more games playing in Washington

· Some sort of stock market correction is in order. He had cut his equity exposure in May quite sharply so this is something that doesn’t surprise him.

· Whatever problems in the US, they have worse problems in Europe just look at the recent downgrade given on Spain. The sheer challenge to the authorities is now on a scale that is unimaginable…..can’t see how they will be able to solve their EURO problems. Thinks the EURO is much more riskier than the dollar. The Elites who get together from these countries (1 each per country) are much more removed from the voters. Germany is the only winner in the EURO zone.

· The fact that gold continues to get support day after day is one of those signs that it is gradually being taken out of commodity class and being put into currency class. What’s clear is that among the populace worldwide is that they are losing faith in their leadership and currency. They are looking for a medium they can believe in. By the settlement last week, they violated the last rule of the Euro zone which was that it would never become a bail out zone. This can only mean that money from that side of the world will move into Swiss francs and gold.

· Looks like the US will have to be taken off the triple A rating which means the capital asset pricing will no longer work and everything is under challenge due to break down in sovereign debt. Will be very challenging for institutions. Cost for capital for business will remain extremely low. There is still a good case for great equities. For individual investors it means going back to common sense ….ask if you are buying something that is economically sound, that is selling something with profits, with honest management?

· Question came up about whether Federal Government will cut some of the workers’ wages and benefits to bring them more in line with private sector – Don said he didn’t think so as the Public Sector Unions are now the biggest contributors to the Democrats bigger than even the Trial Lawyers. Obama made sure they got a wage increase as part of the latest stimulus. Therefore he will do whatever he can to protect them as they are his biggest supporters.

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