Short term I'm very cautious - I do think there is a high probability of another wave down before we get a true intermediate term low.

But big picture, I'm far less bearish than Peter. The emerging markets, especially China, may slow down temporarily, but they have the capacity to re-accelerate quickly. They demonstrated they could do that after the 08 global recession. Furthermore, they can pull the world up with them - they've proven that too. The population of the emerging market countries continues to grow, as does their wealth - and they will aquire all the "stuff" we have, so the demand for base metals will continue to grow.

I believe the environment for US stocks is actually quite good. A sluggish US economy results in easy Fed money - low borrowing costs for US companies. At the same time, large cap US companies make half their money outside of the US, so they have the best of both worlds. Furthermore, all this money printing makes stocks an asset class that will inflate along with everything else.

Short of a massive calamity - like a nuclear war, plague, or an asteroid strike, I do not think we will ever go back to the 09 lows [and that would be the least of our worries]. Possibly a bear market in 2012 or 2013 that brings us down to S&P 900 or so, but that's it.