Since the markets cracked a month ago, I've been taking a hard look at the 08 crash and bottoming process.

There are a few similarities to the current situation. In 08, GDX bottomed first, in late Oct - then had a powerful run. The rest of the market had a bottom a month later. Venture bounced around for a few weeks, then started a strong run. The US markets went on to make a new, final bottom the following March, but GDX & Venture never looked back. So far, things are on track to do something similar. We had a mini-crash, GDX bottomed and so far has made a nice run, Venture is currently bouncing around, and US markets are trying to make a bottom (perhaps temporarily).

For this fractal to be valid, Venture cannot make a significant new low (below 1675), and must eventually make a new short term high (above 1830).

I suspect the US markets will make a new low and bottom in late Sep or early Oct followed by a nice year end rally. Hopefully, Venture will avoid the new low and join the party along with the big cap gold stocks.