Don Coxe 9/16/11 Institutional Conference Call
posted on
Sep 16, 2011 12:24PM
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Susan's Notes:
Don Coxe 9.16.11 Conference Call
· Discussions today about the EURO crisis. Resolved for the time being due to Geithner’s intervention. Relief rally occurring in Euro.
· Next global crisis will occur in Europe not the US. Don’s Basic Points will be out later today which is a very long read. Bottom line is that this will not go away in a hurry. The decision making process in Europe is fractured. Only 27% of German voters think Merkel is right in her decisions.
· U of Michigan ratings had some modest improvements in sentiment.
· Geithner is in Europe telling them they have to get their act together and that the US will stand behind them. Part of the problem for the European banks is the US money markets pulling out its funds from European banks. This has created a gigantic liquidity squeeze in Europe. They invested there originally because Europe’s rates were much higher than in the US but when the US investors found out about Euro bank investments all heck broke loose.
· Difficult for Don to talk about longer term investments when we are dealing with a crisis in Europe. Don spoke with a high level German financier who shared with him what’s been the thought process in Germany. Said that from German’s perspective, longer term Germany could not have situations where “tails wag dogs.” Germany has made 20 years of sacrifices as German unions agreed over this time to forego wage increases in order to make Germany competitive. German financier told him that there were two commodities that gave the bankers major concerns……gold and oil.
· Question for gold is whether there is confidence in the Euro. Don has been consistently recommending a major over weighting in gold and gold mining stocks. He continues to believe that this is the case although this type of approach is being ridiculed in the media especially with $60 price swings. What we need to keep in mind is that even with the selloff in gold, the price of it is not being reflected in the miners. Does not think this is something that will go away.
· US economic news continues to be disappointing. Numbers are below forecast which means the risk of a recession is increasing. We are at a “stalled speed” so something has to happen to move these numbers up.
· I get the feeling that Don was getting a lot of heat from the view of many that he was anti-equities. He said he was not anti-equities but that in your equity portfolio you should segment it into two groups. One emphasizing the bullet proof dividend stocks which you use in place of very high yield bonds and those tied to economic growth. Need to differentiate between the equities you buy for income and those that you buy as a bet on economic growth.