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Message: Timmins Gold Corp
Canaccord bolsters long-term view on gold
Monday, October 17, 2011
Darcy Keith

It hasn’t been the autumn gold bugs were hoping for, but Canaccord Genuityreleased a revised outlook on precious metals today that should help keep theirspirits up. It substantially raised its long-term gold forecast to $1,500 (U.S.)an ounce - a $400 boost.

“We believe that macro-economic conditions continue to favour higher goldprices, including record global liquidity, inflation prospects, low realinterest rates, unresolved European sovereign debt issues and global currencydebasement,” analyst Steven Butler said in a research note.

But one factor in particular has him feeling bullish: the record highliquidity levels in the U.S. dollar. Global U.S. dollar liquidity, which hisresearch demonstrates has an “almost perfect” correlation to gold, sits at$10.4-trillion and is still rising.

Mr. Butler’s long-term forecast for $1,500 an ounce gold starts in 2014.Previously, has was forecasting $1,100 in 2017 and beyond.

He still sees gold peaking at $1,750, but tempered his outlook for the peakprice for silver, now forecasting it to reach $40 instead of $45 due to a weakereconomic outlook.

Canaccord’s revised view of the commodities resulted in several changes toits outlook on equities. They are:

Timmins Gold Corp. : Downgraded to “sell” from “hold,” with the price targetcut by 40 cents to $2.20. In addition to the revised gold and silver outlook,the action was tied to low gold recoveries and the possibility the company mayrequire new debt or equity.

Goldgroup Mining Inc.’s price target was raised by 20 cents to $3.

Alexco Resource Corp.’s price target was cut by $2.50 to $9.75.

Bear Creek Mining Corp.’s price target was cut by $1.50 to $7.

Canaco Resources Inc.’s price target was cut by $1.50 to $6.

East Asia Minerals Corp.’s price target was reduced to $1.75 from $2.80.

Exeter Resource Corp.’s price target was cut to $9.35 from $11.50.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.’s price target was cut to $8.25 from $9.

Golden Minerals Co.’s price target was cut to $22.75 from $23.50.

MAG Silver Corp.’s price target was cut to $16.75 from $18.50.

North Country Gold Corp.’s price target was cut to $2.20 from $2.70.

Sandstorm Gold Ltd.’s price target was cut to $1.70 from $1.90

SilverCrest Mines Inc.’s price target was cut to $3.15 from $4.

Though price targets were cut on the above equities, he still rates most asspeculative buys.

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