don coxe's 10/28/11 Conference Call
posted on
Oct 28, 2011 02:56PM
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Don Coxe 10.28.11 Conference Call
· Really good news about the recent European news is that it has found a leader. Merkel took charge and got a deal done in the wee hours when everyone had given up. She is now the leader when Sarkowsky is too weak politically.
· At a time when we see the Chinese bailing out of Treasuries at an unprecedented rate, just unbelievable quantities they have been selling since 2010, means there has been a big change in support for the dollar. The fact that the dollar has stayed strong shows that big banks are desperate to protect themselves from euros.
· They needed to focus on the European banking system so that people can depend on that. This is hopeful….a chance this can happen.
· European Central Bank is now free to lower its interest rates. It’s a given that we will see a cut in rates in Europe and this will offset the contractionary effect of recapitalizing the European banks.
· For investors you have to allow for the increased chance that they may get this European thing right…Once they lower interest rates you will get a rally in European bonds.
· Don seems to be changing his mind….thinks it may be risky here to be too negative on the stock markets. His advice to us as investors is that we should look to see what you think is particularly cheap in the commodity sector. He is enthusiastic about the agriculture sector.
· Overall what this does suggest is that the likelihood of slipping into a global recession is reduced. E.g., European rates will likely be lowered. European bonds will then likely rally. Your cornerstone position in gold should remain. Gold is moving back into the system….start with this and then look at what else you may feel good about. (This doesn’t mean that Don sees a runaway bull market coming but does feel like there is some progress and hope that folks will find a solution.)