Holiday rally is still very likely, methinks - but I'm not sure whether we will have a panic-type bottom. We had one of those early Oct. I'm not sure the retest would be panicky or just whimpery (is that a word?). There's 2 ways to look at failure of the VIX to spike - complacency, or most of the bad news is already priced in. I'm leaning towards the latter.

While the facts on the ground are short-term negative, it actually sets up a better intermediate term situation. I was originally thinking we would have a more shallow pullback and a run into Jan. - which I planned to sell into. If we get a successful retest, there is a good possibility that we could rally into the spring. I might have to revise my sell by due date.