Dear Subscriber,

Everyone is up in arms because, as I pen this column, gold has rallied above $1,700 ... silver has jumped as high as $33.79 ... and the broader stock markets have risen to the top of the resistance ceiling I've previously cited at the Dow Industrials 12,800 level.

So my readers are now piling on the wagon about my recent bearish calls on the above markets ... that they were about as dead-wrong as can be ... and they're dumping on me like crazy ... claiming that I'm just one of those stopped clocks that's right only twice a day.

Admittedly, my recent short-term forecasts have indeed been well off the mark. But that doesn't bother me because I have complete confidence in my signals and my analysis, and because readers who have been with me for any length of time also know how accurate they are.

Plus, unlike a stopped clock, I have been right as rain on most all markets for well over a decade, calling nearly every major twist and turn in gold, oil, the dollar, the broader stock markets and more.

As for the latest market moves — as strong as last week's rallies were, we are not yet at that point in time when gold will start its next major leg up ... when silver will blast onward to new record highs ... when crude oil will start its ascent to $200 a barrel ... when base metals like copper will explode higher ... or when the broader stock markets will march to substantially new record highs.

This is the same message I gave my trading subscribers last week. And why do I say it? There are many reasons.

I'll focus on gold, because A) that's what is on most readers' minds ... and B) gold is actually a leading indicator these days for most markets, as it is the commodity most sensitive to the ongoing monetary crisis that's infecting the globe.

FIRST, at last year's record high, gold had completed an 11-year bull-market phase. Markets very rarely go up for 11 straight years without taking a major pause. So from a big-picture point of view, it's unlikely that gold will make new record highs this year.

That by itself is not reason enough for me to maintain my view that gold is in a corrective phase. There's more, much more ...

SECOND, on all of my intermediate-term models — from cycles to technicals — gold also remains in a position that is NOT likely to see it break out to new record highs. Not yet. That's far more likely to come next year, in 2013, heading into 2015-2016.

THIRD, in terms of fundamentals, we still have Europe's sovereign-debt crisis dominating the scene. That's not going to go away, and as I've explained in the past, it is not as bullish for gold as most would like to think.

In reality, Europe's sovereign-debt crisis is far more bullish in the intermediate term for the U.S. dollar than it is for gold. The staggering debts in Europe — as much as $6 trillion, as they are liquidated and defaulted on — will send capital more directly into the dollar than gold.

And to that extent, the crisis will give birth to further rallies in the dollar, which will indeed take some shine off gold this year.

FOURTH, we now have concrete evidence from the Fed about just how bad things are. To some degree, it's certainly no surprise that the Fed admitted last week that it's going to keep interest rates low for at least a couple more years. The economy's lackluster performance warrants it.

Plus, the Fed is getting a lot of help from investors who are buying U.S. bonds hand over fist in a flight to safety (further proof that they are not wholesale buying gold just yet) and keeping rates low.

In fact, as surprising as this may sound, gold's next MAJOR rally ...

I'm talking about when it flies onward to new record highs ... then past $2,100 an ounce ... onward to $3,000 ... to $5,000 (my minimum long-term target) ...

Will not occur until you see the U.S. bond markets start to crack hard. That will be your sign that the sovereign-debt crisis has come home to roost and has landed at Ground Zero for the financial crisis, which is the hugely indebted USA.

And that's when gold will really take off to the upside ...

When silver will explode higher to $75 an ounce ...

When oil will go through the roof ...

When almost every commodity under the sun will explode higher in price ...

And even when the bluest of the blue-chip stocks will become as prized as commodities will be, and also explode higher ...

Because that's also when the U.S. dollar will enter the next stage of its bear market.

So as much as I'd love to say we're at that stage now — and remember, I'm long-term bullish on commodities — we are not there yet.

Instead, we are — according to all the indicators I monitor — merely at the extreme points of corrective rallies that are now pressing extreme resistance levels that should hold ... and we should see nearly all markets soon turn back down.

Could I be completely wrong? Sure I could. And I have my lines in the sand where I'm willing to admit that I'm wrong, and take the appropriate measures to recoup losses and go on to new profit opportunities.

Here's where those lines in the sand are ...

• In gold, we would need to see a daily closing above $1,835 in spot gold, or a Friday closing above $1,809. Short of either one of those signals, the higher that gold goes now, the lower it will go on the next leg down.

• In silver, we would need to see a daily close above $35.79 followed by a close above $37.79 on a Friday closing basis to turn silver's intermediate-term trend back to bullish. Short of those signals, silver remains in a position to plummet yet again.

• In the Dow Industrials, we would need to see a weekly close above 12,879 followed by a monthly close above 13,179. Until we see that happen, the Dow Industrials remain in a position where a surprising move to the downside can still unfold.

Bottom line ...

First, as difficult as it is, I strongly recommend being a contrarian here. The recent moves you've witnessed are not the real McCoy. As sure as I know my name, anyone getting caught up in these moves will get their heads handed to them.

Second, instead, I suggest you hold all of my recent recommendations including inverse ETFs such as ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) ... ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) ... ProShares Short S&P 500 (SH) ... or the more leveraged ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU) ... and ProShares UltraShort Euro ETF (EUO).

Stay tuned and best wishes,

Larry