Resource Stocks Disappointing
posted on
Mar 11, 2012 09:34AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Venture came out of the gate strong this year – outperforming most indexes (except for Nasdaq) until late Feb. But during the last couple of weeks, Venture dropped off considerably. I was hoping for relative strength in the juniors during a market correction, but quite the opposite happened. One thing I've learned about hope - it's not a trading strategy.
Venture has apparently completed its rebound rally / Santa trade. This rally was noteworthy in that there was a general rise for most beaten up stocks, but not a lot of individual stocks popped up. So the gains were characterized by modest buying paired with a lack of selling. Now, buying has dropped off – so much that modest selling on Mon & Tues took Venture down hard. Wed thru Fri gains didn't even recover Tuesday's losses. By contrast, Nasdaq recovered everything and even had a small gain for the week.
Venture now appears to be in no man's land. So for the juniors, I'm now slightly bearish short term. There is a chance Venture could outperform once again, but it's unlikely until US markets start a new uptrend. As for US markets, volume during the Wed-Fri comeback was unimpressive, so they're probably still in correction mode. Don't think it will be severe or prolonged, it may be just a sideways move. Still, I plan to keep selling my juniors until the Venture starts outperforming again. I hate to say it, but I think the entire resource complex – PMs, base metals, energy have entered a major consolidation pattern. So there's no tradeable trend. Sector consolidation patterns are OK for good stock pickers, but not for me.
I do think the uranium & rare earth groups may be an exception. These stocks don't always trade with the rest of the resource stocks, so they may have more potential right now. Rees look like they are finally starting to come to life. Uranium stocks have already moved up a bit and are now pulling back – usually there is another move in the offing. I don't think any moves will be huge, but might still be worth playing.