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Message: Mar 29 metals report

Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:25am EDT

* Copper stuck in recent ranges, China demand doubts weigh
    * Nickel, lead hit new lows
    * Zinc fundamentals look increasingly gloomy

    By Silvia Antonioli and Maytaal Angel	
    LONDON, March 29 (Reuters) - Copper was steady on Thursday and
was on track for a 10 percent increase this quarter, although
doubts over demand in top consumer China made many investors
nervous and kept the metal range bound.	
    Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME)
traded at $8,346 a tonne at 1415 GMT, little changed from a close
of $8,349 on Wednesday.	
    "There's just no direction at the moment, some funds are
trying to sell but as soon as (copper) gets down to $8,200 it gets
bought. I've never seen copper trade sideways for such a long
period of time," said Citi analyst David Wilson.	
    "China is definitely a drag, you're seeing premiums as low as
$30 a tonne which shows a well supplied market (but) what's
keeping the market underpinned is LME inventory being drawn down
at a reasonable rate."	
    Copper, used in power and construction, has been range bound
since early February, though the metal used in power and
construction is still on course for a 10 percent gain this quarter
after a strong performance in January.	
    U.S. data out earlier failed to give copper any reason to move
out of recent ranges, with jobless claims fell to a fresh four
year low last week but missing analyst forecasts, and with the
economy expanding as expected in the fourth quarter. 	
  	
    Nevertheless, some analysts remain optimistic about copper
looking further out.	
    "For all base metals there is a supply surge underway but
copper risks another handsome supply shortage and we know China is
structurally short. They need to import millions of tonnes," said
Nick Moore, an analyst at RBS.	
    Copper is on track for a 10 percent increase this quarter. Tin
, the best performing metal so far, is on course for a 17
percent quarterly increase, zinc for an 8 percent rise
while aluminium is up 6 percent on the quarter.	
    The biggest losers are lead, down 3 percent on the
quarter, and nickel, down 6 percent - some of the most
heavily supplied markets.	
    "LME inventories of nickel have risen sharply to eight-week's
worth of consumption and we expect a 50,000 tonnes surplus in
2012," Moore said. "It's a fully supplied market and new projects
are coming on stream."	
    Nickel, a key ingredient in stainless steel, earlier hit its
lowest since Dec. 15 at $17,440 a tonne while battery material
lead fell to a session low of $1,960, its lowest since Jan.9. 	
    	
 	
    ZINC OUTLOOK GLOOMY	
    Prices of zinc overtook lead this month for the first time
since September 2011, reversing the traditional relationship,
despite ballooning LME zinc inventories .  	
    Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal
Exchange (LME) jumped to the highest in nearly 17 years on
Wednesday, climbing steadily after years of market
surpluses.   	
    "The fundamental outlook is becoming increasingly gloomy on
the zinc market," said Commerzbank in a research note.	
    "There is no likelihood of these high stocks being
significantly reduced in the foreseeable future, for the global
zinc market, which has been in surplus since 2007... Because zinc
is used mainly in the galvanization of steel, zinc demand could
decline as growth in the steel industry becomes less dynamic."	
    Zinc was little changed at $2,005 from $2,000 at
Wednesday's close while battery material lead traded at
$1997.25, not far off a last bid of $1,986 on Wednesday.	
    Underpinning lead, Doe Run late Wednesday declared force
majeure on its primary lead production at its smelter in
Herculaneum, Missouri due to a  fire last week at the smelter's
electric substation. 	
    Tin traded at $22,405 a tonne from $22,425 and
aluminium <CMAL3 bucked the trend, trading down more than 2
percent at $2,143.75 from $2,196.	
    Nickel was down at $17,440 from $17,575. 	
 Metal Prices at 1418 GMT
 Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
 yuan/T
  Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2009   Ytd Pct
                                                              move
  COMEX Cu       378.65       -0.60     -0.16     334.65     13.15
  LME Alum         0.00    -2196.00   -100.00    2230.00   -100.00
  LME Cu           0.00    -8349.00   -100.00    7375.00   -100.00
  LME Lead      1998.00        8.00     +0.40    2432.00    -17.85
  LME Nickel   17460.00     -115.00     -0.65   18525.00     -5.75
  LME Tin      22400.00      -25.00     -0.11   16950.00     32.15
  LME Zinc         0.00    -2000.00   -100.00    2560.00   -100.00
  SHFE Alu     16170.00      -10.00     -0.06   17160.00     -5.77
  SHFE Cu*     59740.00     -370.00     -0.62   59900.00     -0.27
  SHFE Zin     15340.00     -115.00     -0.74   21195.00    -27.62
 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
 * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
 SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

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