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Message: Re: Gold down, US$ up - a contrarian view?

Apr 20, 2012 03:57PM

I agree - it's just a book promo. Reminds me of the books on the Great Depression of 1990 & that Y2K nonsense.

Predict a dire calamity a few years into the future. Then appear in the mass-media relentlessly speculating about it and publish a book on how you can only survive the coming storm. Inevitably there will be people who buy into the fear/hype, despite the fact that like most predictions of doom, it turned out to be wrong.”

http://drmatthewashton.com/2011/01/26/political-predictions-they-got-wrong-no5-the-great-depression-of-1990/



But what about the actual arguments presented? Here's my counter:

We already know the deleveraging argument is wrong. The battle between money printing and deleveraging has been going on ever since the 08 crash. So far, money printing has been able to keep up with deleveraging - at least according to prices for most asset classes (other than housing & nat gas, which have special circumstances). I see no reason why this cannot continue until deleveraging is complete. In fact, it's very likely that the money printing will overshoot. Kind of like driving a car uphill – you have to get off the gas before you reach the top. Problem with the money printers is they cannot tell exactly when the deleveraging/deflation ends. The result will be a brief but powerful acceleration of the money supply – which I believe will power the final stage of the gold bubble.

Before that happens, it does seem likely there will be one big hiccup - next year's US post-election austerity, which is inevitable regardless who wins. This could result in a major market pullback, at least until the money printing is expanded to balance the austerity / government deleveraging. I'm certain any significant pullback will have the bears roaring & increase book sales for the crash promoters.

Regarding the demographic argument, I don't know if it was intentional, but they omitted about 90% of the world's population by limiting their argument to the US / Western world. The demographics in most of the non-Western world is actually quite positive for world economic growth. The world is relentlessly Westernizing – most people around the world want TVs, fridges, cars & ipads. This should fuel a major secular bull market – I'm not buying the crash thing.

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