http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/why-im-excited-about-gold-market

The article is generally optimistic, but this little section is a good reality check:

the junior market, in aggregate, is always overvalued. If we were to merge every gold junior in the world into one entity (let's call it Junior Goldco), that company would lose (profits and corporate acquisitions less industry expenditures) somewhere between two billion and eight billion dollars per year. What should we pay for this enterprise – what is the correct price-loss ratio?