MBC...National Bank
posted on
May 15, 2012 02:01PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
HIGHLIGHTS
Shares Outstanding - Fully Diluted (mln) 118.4
Shares Outstanding - Fully Diluted, Full Financed (mln) 140.7
Market Capitalization (mln) $346
Year End: July 31
Stage I Asset (100% owned): Itafos Phosphate Project, Brazil
P&P Reserve N/A
Measured & Indicated Resource 75.8Mt @ 5.00% P2O5
Inferred Resource 12.3Mt @ 3.93% P205
Annual Production 500K tpy SSP (phase I)
Estimated Start Date Q4 2012
Opex (estimated - per tonne) $125
Capex (estimated - mln) $260
NAV
9.5% (estimated - mln) $757
NAVPS (fd, ff) $5.41
All amounts in Canadian dollars
Financial Data: As at Feb 10, 2012
Estimated Cash with ITM Warrants and Options (mln) $128
Estimated Total Debt (mln) $7.0
Enterprise Value (mln) $224
All amounts in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted
Industry Rating: Overweight
(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
?
New Prefeasibility Study (“PFS”) for Santana project
reaffirms MBAC’s growth prospects.
The new PFS shows
the potential for growth beyond the in-construction Itafos
project (circa Q4 2012 production). Like Itafos, Santana is
projected to produce 500k tpy of SSP, though higher grades at
Santana (i.e. ~12% P2O5 v. ~5% at Itafos) suggest capability
of producing higher margin phosphate products such as triple
superphosphate (“TSP”) and di-calcium phosphate (“DSP”).
?
Santana project timing and life of mine improve, though
NPV falls slightly with lower assumed SSP price and
higher costs.
The PFS showed notable improvements over
the September 2011 Preliminary Economic Assessment
(“PEA”), including a longer mine life (now 30 yrs, was 22 yrs)
and first production moved forward to Q1/15 from Q3/15.
Despite these gains, project NPV
10% fell to US$407 mln from
US$423 mln largely due to lower assumed SSP prices (now
US$349/t from US$400/t), ~2% higher capex (to US$393
mln), and a ~3% lift in SSP opex (to US$131/t). The updated
IRR fell to 22% from 26%.
?
Trimming DCF-based target to $5.50 from $6.00. We had
modeled 62% total g.m. with full Santana contribution in F16,
but trim that to 61%, corresponding to ~$110 mln Santana
run-rate EBITDA (was ~$120 mln). With the slight capex
creep in the PFS we now assume a future (circa H1/F13) $100
mln equity raise (was $75 mln) at $4.50/sh (was $5.00). Our
NAV falls 3% to US$757 mln from US$782 mln and share
count (fd, ff) climbs 6% to ~141 mln, driving the new $5.50/sh
target. As MBAC expands production we see MBC rising to
~$8/sh within three years at 8x EBITDA (Exhibit 1.)
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