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Message: MBC...National Bank

HIGHLIGHTS

Shares Outstanding - Fully Diluted (mln) 118.4

Shares Outstanding - Fully Diluted, Full Financed (mln) 140.7

Market Capitalization (mln) $346

Year End: July 31

Stage I Asset (100% owned): Itafos Phosphate Project, Brazil

P&P Reserve N/A

Measured & Indicated Resource 75.8Mt @ 5.00% P2O5

Inferred Resource 12.3Mt @ 3.93% P205

Annual Production 500K tpy SSP (phase I)

Estimated Start Date Q4 2012

Opex (estimated - per tonne) $125

Capex (estimated - mln) $260

NAV

9.5% (estimated - mln) $757

NAVPS (fd, ff) $5.41

All amounts in Canadian dollars

Financial Data: As at Feb 10, 2012

Estimated Cash with ITM Warrants and Options (mln) $128

Estimated Total Debt (mln) $7.0

Enterprise Value (mln) $224

All amounts in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted

Industry Rating: Overweight

(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)

?

New Prefeasibility Study (“PFS”) for Santana project

reaffirms MBAC’s growth prospects.

The new PFS shows

the potential for growth beyond the in-construction Itafos

project (circa Q4 2012 production). Like Itafos, Santana is

projected to produce 500k tpy of SSP, though higher grades at

Santana (i.e. ~12% P2O5 v. ~5% at Itafos) suggest capability

of producing higher margin phosphate products such as triple

superphosphate (“TSP”) and di-calcium phosphate (“DSP”).

?

Santana project timing and life of mine improve, though

NPV falls slightly with lower assumed SSP price and

higher costs.

The PFS showed notable improvements over

the September 2011 Preliminary Economic Assessment

(“PEA”), including a longer mine life (now 30 yrs, was 22 yrs)

and first production moved forward to Q1/15 from Q3/15.

Despite these gains, project NPV

10% fell to US$407 mln from

US$423 mln largely due to lower assumed SSP prices (now

US$349/t from US$400/t), ~2% higher capex (to US$393

mln), and a ~3% lift in SSP opex (to US$131/t). The updated

IRR fell to 22% from 26%.

?

Trimming DCF-based target to $5.50 from $6.00. We had

modeled 62% total g.m. with full Santana contribution in F16,

but trim that to 61%, corresponding to ~$110 mln Santana

run-rate EBITDA (was ~$120 mln). With the slight capex

creep in the PFS we now assume a future (circa H1/F13) $100

mln equity raise (was $75 mln) at $4.50/sh (was $5.00). Our

NAV falls 3% to US$757 mln from US$782 mln and share

count (fd, ff) climbs 6% to ~141 mln, driving the new $5.50/sh

target. As MBAC expands production we see MBC rising to

~$8/sh within three years at 8x EBITDA (Exhibit 1.)

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