I've been pondering this for a while - I think the setup is quite different than last year.

Just speaking of juniors, last year we had a down year after 2 consecutive up years, with a top early in the year. There were probably many investors who took profits and were in need of tax loss selling.

This year, we've had 2 down years in a row. I just don't think there are a lot of investors who have to do tax loss selling. The only way an investor in juniors would need to do this is if they took profits in US markets. Somehow I just can't believe there are a lot of investors in US markets who also trade juniors.

Considering the massive oversold condition in the juniors, I think a more likely scenario is a rally - at least into January.