Silver Market Update

originally published October 2nd, 2012

The story for silver at this point is much the same as that for gold, but as usual, more extreme – with silver there are bigger gains to be harvested, and bigger prospective profits if it now reverses violently to the downside, which could be occasioned by a larger dollar rally, as predicted on the site at the weekend. Silver made a new intraday high yesterday, ended the day with a bearish “Shooting Star” on its chart, again on higher volume, and looks vulnerable to a sharp drop if the support in the $33.40 area is breached. Tactics for traders here are clear cut and simple and the same as for gold - TAKE PROFITS AND GO SHORT, but reverse position immediately following a close above yesterday’s intraday high, should this occur. Overhead stop out point is close by and well defined, so risk is known and limited.

The latest silver COT chart shows that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions have risen even more to another record for the period of this chart – the Large Specs are clearly “betting the farm” on this uptrend, so it will be really sad for them if they get it wrong – it would have been better for them if they had done this back in June, when silver was $6 cheaper. This chart is, or should be, profoundly alarming for any traders long silver at this point.