I was very pleased that Obama won, but not surprised. I had been following Nate Silver's blog, which showed a high probability of an Obama win. His statistical analysis of the many polls made perfect sense to me (I did a lot of statistics in grad school). What did surprise me were the predictions of Romney landslides and subsequently, the shock displayed by so many Republicans. Even though the overwhelming majority of polls had Obama leading most of the battleground states, they thought their “gut feelings” could override the polling, the science, the math. I always suspected that a lot of right wingers were living in an alternate universe, but it was still amazing to witness confirmation.

Mr. Market had a sharp 2 day knee-jerk drop after Obama was re-elected. I didn't expect it, but I should have - the exact same thing happened after the 2008 election. Actually, Obama's win did put one legitimate fear into the market - capital gains and dividend taxes are more likely to go up on Jan 1, 2013. People will do anything to avoid paying taxes, so now there is incentive to sell off winners ahead of the new year. Usually, there is tax loss selling, this year it's tax avoidance selling. So instead of poorly performing stocks getting sold off, the stocks that have done well are vulnerable this season - at least until they make a deal on the capital gains tax. So, right now, it may actually be better to own under-performers like PMs and juniors. Of course, trading this is real tricky, because if they make a deal, stocks like AAPL will pop. But you never know what the politicians are going to do - or when..... Ultimately though, Obama is better for the markets than Romney. Despite the fiscal cliff fears, US markets have already recovered most of the post-election decline.

Now for a reality check. Historically, tax changes on capital gains & dividends have not demonstrated any lasting effect on markets. People don't pull their 401Ks, hedge funds don't shut down over an increase in taxes. Furthermore, the economic effect of the fiscal cliff is also overrated. Jan 1 is simply the start of tax hikes and spending cuts – a deal could be made at any time before or shortly after, with minimal effect. One thing is very likely – the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will automatically end. This merely returns the top tax rate to the Clinton era 39% from the current 36%. I doubt this would have any real negative economic effects. It would however, help reduce the deficit – a net positive.

US markets still look constructive – Monthly MACD is modestly positive, trendline from March 09 has not been violated, 200 day EMA still pointing up, and my intermediate bottoming indicators are still working. Put it all together, and the bull market in US stocks is still intact.

Unfortunately for long-suffering junior miner investors, Venture is in just the opposite condition. Still, there is hope – Monthly MACD is negative, but seems to be slowly creeping closer to a buy signal. Uptrend from March 2009 cracked last year, but so has the downtrend line from March 2011 (albeit barely). Intermediate term, it is in the middle of a trading range 1150-1350. A breakout or breakdown from this range would be very significant, methinks.

Bottom line: seasonality is positive, tax selling (loss and avoidance) is a question mark. I'm all in, and hoping/expecting a rally at least into January. I plan to sell into strength – I want to take advantage of any liquidity that may develop in order to unload my less liquid juniors.