US markets are still constructive - monthly MACD is positive, trend line from 09 still intact. Still, the bull born in March 09 is getting a little long in the tooth, methinks. It's possible that 2013 could be OK, but the risks of a major downturn get higher as the bull ages. 2013 represents the first year of the Presidential cycle, which is typically the worst year of the 4 year cycle. Also, some economists (e.g., David Rosenberg, Nouriel Roubini) that have been generally bearish for most of the entire bull market are starting to get bullish. I look to these guys as contrary indicators, so this is a red flag for me.They may actually be right on the economy, but the market does not necessarily follow.

Even though I believe a new secular bull was born in March 09, we may be reaching the end of its first up leg. In Elliot Wave terms, correction wave 2 could start anytime this year, probably in the spring. I don't believe this move will be too severe – it should not seriously test the 09 lows, but it could be a slow grinding move down. Possibly more than 20%, which would allow the gloom & doom pundits to declare the continuation of the secular bear which started in 2000 - the same ones that call a 100%+ gain during our almost 4 year bull run as nothing more than a bear market rally (oops, missed the rally, but we'll be proven right eventually). Still, regardless as to what you wish to call it, I think there is a growing risk of a downswing sometime this year, so I'm finally turning cautious on US markets.

So for what it's worth, here's what my crystal ball says for 2013.

US markets rally early in the year and top out in the spring. January should be positive, probably a minor pullback in late January or February (generated by the usual political wrangling – this time with the debt ceiling), with a final rally into May-June. S&P gets close to its all time high in the 1500 to 1550 area. This area is where the S&P peaked in 2000 and again in 2007, so it's probably too high a hurdle for a 4 year old bull to jump over. Market then drifts down into a selling climax in Oct followed by a standard year end rally (This happens so often, I always like to toss it into the crystal ball readings, lol). Despite the year end rally, market will probably be down or flat for the year.

US markets have outperformed emerging markets for the last couple of years. This should reverse in 2013. So resource stocks should outperform as well. Doesn't mean Venture will have a great year, but it's unlikely to have a terrible year like the last 2.

Outlook for early 2014 is also down (either bottoming in the spring, or more likely the fall). 2014 is really too far for a clear crystal ball reading, but if it happens to be right, wave 3 of our secular bull should start sometime that year. That would be the start of a multi-year period where investors would be able to make money by randomly buying stocks – fun times ahead. We just have to be disciplined enough to preserve cash in order to take advantage.