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Message: Technical Damage

Resources, especially the PM space suffered severe technical breakdowns last week – it will take at least several months to repair the damage. A bounce is very likely from here, but it will probably only get back to the breakdown points (gold 1500-1550, GDX 33-34). Positive seasonality for the PMs doesn't kick in until the end of July at the earliest, so after a bounce, PMs will probably drift lower until then. A real buying opportunity could come after that.

The juniors are in similar condition, perhaps worse. A bounce in the Venture will probably be weak. Until volume picks up, this space should be avoided, methinks. Still, I'm watching Venture for signs of life – at some point juniors will come back into favour, and I don't want to miss the next run – whenever it comes.

US markets are currently in correction mode, but I expect one more rally before the usual summer swoon. Indications are the summer drop could be more severe than it has the last few years – margin debt is very high, small caps are underperforming, and major resistance levels are looming. Also, the bull is now 4 years old, and looking a bit tired of late.

I'm trading this several ways. I took my hedges off the PMs and actually bought a few select gold stocks at the end of last week (some on stink bids) – just playing for a bounce. Also, the puts I sold have been assigned, so I'm the less than proud owner of GDX, GG, FNV, AUY, & SAND. I plan to exit the space once again when resistance levels get close. As for juniors, I don't have all that much left, but I continue to sell anything with a bid. And for the first time in several years I've started shorting select stocks in the US markets – in sectors that appear to be rolling over (e.g., home builders).

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