Three out of Three Analysts Agree: Time to Play the Gold Miners

By Ben Levisohn

As my colleague Brendan Conway noted today, gold and silver are getting a boost today as hedge funds stop selling the precious metals and investors look for alternatives to weak stocks.

Reuters

Gold miners, however, are not participating in the rally today. Newmont Mining (NEM) has dropped 1.8% to $32.62, Goldcorp (GG) has gained 0.1% to $31.30 and Barrick Gold (ABX) has fallen 1.6% to $19.50. The Market Vectors Goldminers ETF (GDX) has fallen 1.1% to $30.09.

Today’s weakness, however, belies a further shift in analyst sentiment about the no-longer-as-beaten-down gold- and silver-mining stocks. In a report today, for instance, Michael Dudas and Satyadeep Jain of Sterne Agee note that the let up in selling of precious metals should be good for the miners. They write:

Massive physical demand flows now buffeted by investor views surrounding global mix of economic growth. Gold and silver flirting with upswings through 100-day moving averages. Gross negative sentiment and liquidation abating while short positions teeter. Sharp recovery from oversold, washed out levels should continue across our universe, especially higher quality precious metal names…

With investor sentiment still quite skeptical, any supportive macro news flow could provide fuel for a rally.

We continue to recommend Newmont, [Coeur Mining (CDE)] and [Gold Resource Corp. (GORO)] as large cap, silver and small cap picks, respectively.

Sterne Agee’s comments come one day after Ned Davis Research upgraded the gold sector to Neutral from Underweight. “…gold miners look to be finally bottoming,” John Laforge and Waren Pies wrote, though they say it’s too early to know if a new uptrend has begun.

JPMorgan’s John Bridges, meanwhile, expects gold stocks to rally through the Denver Gold Forum from Sept. 22 to Sept. 25. He writes:

There’s typically some positive seasonality to the gold price in August/September helped by India, which is still the largest single (28%) gold market…Often this strength correlates with the Denver gold conference. The conference attracts many of the larger gold investors and given the other positives for the metal (and that the depressing effect of the Q2 results is past) we would not be surprised to see a stronger gold price in the run up to the show. We’d encourage shorter-term investors to consider getting long the gold space with a four to five week time horizon.

Bridges favorite stocks include Goldcorp, Newmont, Eldorado Gold (EGO) and New Gold (NGD).

Note, however, that these recommendations are all qualified in one way or another. Investors should keep that in mind before going all in on the gold miners.