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Message: Re: Peter's Revisionism

Feb 04, 2014 02:06PM

Feb 04, 2014 07:17PM

Feb 05, 2014 11:46AM
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Feb 05, 2014 01:41PM
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Feb 05, 2014 11:36PM

I've read Peter's latest crash preditions. He bases it on too much private and personal debt, people owning too much stuff, etc. While I have a similar view on much of that, there's nothing new about it - I don't see how it crashes the stock market. Technically he bases it on the multi-year megaphone pattern, which he considers bearish. However, this pattern is just as often a continuation pattern as a reversal - it breaks up just as often as it breaks down.

About tomorrow's jobs report - I think you're right. It will very likely move markets - especially the gold market (probably down for gold). I have to decide whether to dump the rest of my PMs - I sold most of my winners from the Santa trade but I've kept a lot of this stuff in anticipation of a possible 2nd leg up. Logically, there's no reason to hold on, but technically the gold stocks look like they are trying to form a bullish cup and handle pattern. Of course the pattern is only valid if there is a breakout to the upside – which has not yet happened.

Right now I'm torn between logic, which says "sell PMs" and technicals which say "hold." I think tomorrow or Monday will be a tell. I keep thinking of that song "Should I stay or should I go."

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Feb 06, 2014 01:34PM

Feb 06, 2014 02:44PM
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Feb 07, 2014 09:10AM
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