Pms & Juniors – Fingers Still Crossed
posted on
Feb 09, 2014 06:25PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Friday was a very good day in the markets – many sectors went up together. Especially heartening for PMs, since they've often gone down when US markets went up. According to Mr. Market, it was a Goldilocks jobs report – not bad enough to scare investors about a slowing economy and not good enough to move the Fed into faster QE tapering. US Market internals went positive for the first time since Jan 22.
Gold stocks climbed up to test their January highs – in what looks like a small cup & handle formation. A decisive break of the January highs would confirm the pattern. If they do break out, the first target is the August highs, which doesn't seem like much, but is more than 25% from here.
US markets look like they are about to rally into spring – I think PMs & juniors will follow this time. If they do, they will move a lot more in percentage terms than the rest of the market – that's why I'm currently playing them. These stocks have great potential based on the princliple “the bigger the decline, the bigger the bounce.” Gold the metal is also showing a better profile on the futures markets. The normal cantango has almost disappeared. This is bullish, especially if it happens to go into backwardation (still an “if” but definitely possible).
Big picture on Venture: Because of its nearly 3 year bear market, the 200 day MA is now so low that one good day would put the index over it. The 200 has also flattened out. Venture is above its 20MA and the 20 is above the 50. Volume is not yet impressive, but does appear to be improving. The appearance of the chart is that of a multi-month basing pattern featuring a double bottom (June & Dec) and an irregular inverse head & shoulders. Confirmation would be a decisive break of the Jan high, which would coincidentally move Venture above its 200MA. Venture has very little resistance under 1200, so a 25% move is easily possible.
Of course, we need confirmation – if all goes well, that will happen early this week. So, for now my fingers are still crossed.