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Message: Venture - time to be cautious

Crystal ball is slightly dark and cloudy these days - US Dollar is strong, which is pressuring a lot of markets. Commodities and Venture are breaking down again but Shanghai broke out in July and is still rising. Those markets used to be positively correlated.

US markets appeared to have a reversal day on Friday. Internals are negative in both US markets and Venture, but Venture has a much higher beta, so it's better to be in US markets if one has to be invested. I just lighten up and raise cash and wait for another opportunity. I think a seasonal bottom for a lot of stocks is likely in October. So the bias is down for now, but probably nothing major.

Shorter term, GDX is close to the $22 support level and Venture is close to the 950-940 support level – we're probably in for a bounce this week. I plan to play it, but I'll be ready to bail if the bounce fails. Options are cheap right now, so I plan to buy Oct or Nov calls on GDX if and when it reaches support. If bought at a good time, the options will double on a fairly modest bounce – but they must be sold on the bounce, because there's a good chance GDX will eventually test last December's lows.

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