Now that I've got your attention, let's go over the fundamentals.

The only way TRX will keep going up from here is if gold breaks out of its upper channel and blasts through 1650 and beyond. Then TRE will bull. That is the only way.

Factually speaking, the big money is on gold going down probably to 1400 or in that area. The odds favor this scenario and if that is the case TRE is headed to 6 and if that does not hold to $5.50. If the shorts/bears get the upper hand 3 is not out of the question depending on whether gold collapses below 1400.

It is interesting that there were two recent media postings that all of the sudden seem less bullish on TRX as they were in the past.

Posting I

The first is Sinclair's very own kingworldnews interview where he explains that he thinks gold could go through resistance this summer. If you listen carefully however he also says that the government could delay QE3 in which case he admits gold would go down. Then when everything is falling apart in the markets the markets would naturally take a hit and most likely QE3 would entail.

The problem is what happens to gold/TRX in between QE2-QE3? This would be a prime opportunity for the government to scare the hell out of most in the gold markets and trash gold below 1400 in a monster collapse. True eventually it would come back but in the interim most would be scared never to return and credibility of the TRX bulls would be seriously tarnished.

So Sinclair has covered his butt by saying gold could go down which implies TRX would also be trashed.

This is a very real scenario which explains why TRX is less exciting than watching paint dry today.

Posting II

The people at tanzanianroyalty.blogspot.com in their posting:"Why we own TRX" all of the sudden are making a case that the share price is not the focus. Now it’s the dividends that have yet to be announced and probably won’t be announced for several years.

"We are not invested in TRX for the price of the shares, although we do expect them to increase tremendously. The share price is not our focus. Our focus is to survive the coming storm. "

Basically, these two postings have weasel clauses in them. Weasel clauses are contractual instruments designed to give the main premise of a contract an out when things don’t go according to plan. The main premise is that TRX is going up as far as the eye can see but it could not if gold goes down by as much $500 or if things get really bad in the economy. This is all force majeure stuff where you can sweep every type of calamity in it and get monster excuses for what you said would happen won’t happen.

This is very, very real if there is some hesitation between QE2 and QE3. This is made to order for the enemies of gold who happen to be controlling QE.

There is a distinct possibility that gold will exceed its upper trend line this summer as Sinclair alludes to albeit including his weasel clause as well. There is also a very real possibility that gold will collapse first to 1400 and possibly below in which case TRX will be trashed far below 6.

I have heard Sinclair say for over five years that you don’t want to be without your shares because anything could happen and you would miss the boat. This rings hollow now. The point of this posting is that making a case for both sides up or down is a far better public relations position rather say that TRX will hit 8. Otherwise this could smack of a pump and dump bucket shop.

A more realistic way is to say that TRX may hit 3 before it hits 8.