Tuscany goes lower
posted on
Aug 03, 2011 09:49AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
It looks to me like the market does not like the Caroil deal as Tuscany shares dropped today to .98 cents. But what can the retail shareholder do? It looks like short term pain for long term gain. The Brazilian deal for Drillfor and the Caroil deal are in reality doubling the number of rigs that Tuscany will have from 19 to 41. Yes Tuscany's debt will increase however, the new larger Tuscany will generate run rate revenues of $350 million dollars a year with an operating margin of 34%. With this substantial revenue, Tuscany will be able to pay down it's debt at a substantial rate each year. So I'm not worried about the debt. I am worried about the fact that Tuscany pro forma (after) the deal will have 376 million shares. So Tuscany had better create a share buy back plan to repurchase a specific number of it's shares each year going forward starting in 2012 or 2013.
After the deal Tuscany will control the following percentages of rigs in the following countries according to the latest Presentation:
Colombia: 18 rigs = 17% of the drilling market in Colombia
Brazil: 11 rigs = 20% of the drilling market in Brazil
Ecuador: 5 rigs = 24% of the drilling market in Ecuador
Congo: 4+1 rigs = 100% of the drilling market in Congo
Gabon: 3 rigs = 40% of the drilling market in Gabon
Tanzania: 1 rig
So what's a shareholder to do in terms of the August 9 vote. I voted in favour of the deal. I don't see any other decision at this point. If the deal does not go through, Tuscany will lose $7 million dollars in terms of the reciprocal termination payment and the credibility of Tuscany's Board of Directors will be damaged. Other companies will question whether the board can close any future deals as they come available. M&P, the sellers of Caroil have faith that this is a good deal as the shares that they are getting are valued at $1.53 a share, even though the market today is assiging each of the Tuscany shares that they are acquiring a .98 cent value per share. I fully expect that Tuscany shares will rise after the deal in the fall when the oil and gas market goes higher after the summer is over. It will then take Tuscany a number of positive quarterly reports to get the share price back to the $2.00 level. These are just my thoughts for what they are worth. I am no analyst.
Cheers; Scott