More on Stimuli for Tyhee
posted on
Mar 02, 2008 01:52AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
Applepie's comment about warrants made me go back and listen to parts of the Webb interview again, and the following things stood out:
1) Dave says, rather emphatically, TWICE that if a big hole is hit on Big Sky, they may have to adjust budget calculations and look for money in order to bring in another drill. I am just wondering why he would say this twice, and so emphatically. Obviously, this is not the kind of comment you can hang your hat on, but I do find it interesting.
2) Dave also mentions the fact that they are working at an average of one drill hole per day at Big Sky; that's a lot of holes!!!!
3) Dave also underlines the fact that the resource will be revised several times, and he says that the prefeasibility study has been held back in part because "the resource keeps changing." To me "keeps changing"implies a considerable frequency, i.e. changes might be multiple. All of this points to several revisions (resource-related news) over the next little while.
4) Also with regard to the prefeasibility study, Dave mentions that the economics are being worked out based on a $650-$700 gold price, which more and more looks to be quite conservative. Once out, this study will put Tyhee ouncez in a new category: presently Tyhee's ounces are valued at $49 whereas many peers in the non-producing category are at $70-$80. After the study, the valuation should AT LEAST double.
5) I agree that if we could know the amount of money spent on drilling over the last year, we would be able to guesstimate the near-term resource estimate; Webb clearly indicates that the $25 per new oz of resource figure is a good metric. Unfortunately, this metric is useless if we do not know the total amount spent on exploration.
6) On the "downside" I also got the feeling from the interview that the resource will not go over 2 million by much this year. Dave mentions that some ounces cannot be "wisely added" to the resource today because of a need for deeper drilling to confirm what they seem to think is there.
COMMENTS
Sometimes I get the feeling that the"Tyhee building" we all want is going to take much longer than we think. Dave and his team are very careful about planning, calculating numbers, releasing numbers and covering all bases. I think we need to remember that this project is, for Dr. Webb and others, the work of a lifetime, whereas we shareholders would like it to be a work of 6 months, with the net result being impressive bank accounts in short order. The Tyhee team is approaching this with integrity, but integrity takes time.
Nonetheless, I still feel that Tyhee's share price will increase in the near future, and, ironically, I think this has more to do with factors external to the basic fundamentals of Tyhee as a company:
a) Warrants going to zero (this could be argued as basic to the co.)
b) The skyrocketing gold price
c) The big gold companies starting to eat smaller and smaller fish
d) More people hearing about Tyhee; this is where I think Jim Puplava comes in in a big way. Some times his interview sounded like "Come on Dave, now you need to tell the people more! You have something here, don't be shy!" Dave Webb is clearly a humble geologist/engineer, not a wall street marketer! :) I believe a marketing push has now begun, and this is most likely to produce near-term momentum for the share price.
Sorry about the long post; all of this is just my interpretation, of course!
Take care,
stone