Hi Harmlesbob,

Technically, I can see what Russell sees and do not disagree with his shorter term assessment. I suspected that the bounce off the recent low was likely a "b" wave in Elliott terms with a "c" to follow or perhaps another triangle with five waves.

Sinclair doesn't publicly concern himself so much with timing (although he is a very capable trader) but rather with the longer term fundamentals. Sinclair's timing for the next upleg is given vaguely as "the next few weeks." The important part is his analysis of the strength of the gold market at this point though it may not translate to the junior sector immediately. He sees enough strength in general and sufficient support at the level of the angel ($887.50) to "in effect" say if you are interested in gold bullion and wish to buy, you will not go wrong if the market pulls back that far in buying at that point. He also thinks the juniors are a screaming buy at this point.

Longer term; his projection stated over 6 years ago was that gold would go to $1650/oz. and more and more he feels that estimate will err on the side of being conservative.

Hence I posted to express my opinion as well. I think we will do well to just hang in there with our junior position because as Zapata George said, "the gold stocks are lagging the gold price and the juniors are lagging the gold stocks. Both he and Sinclair (as well as Puplava, the Adens, Casey Research et al) are all feeling and saying that "Our dog will have its day." Not to imply Tyhee is a dog. :)

And since I likewise assess the financial condition of the USA where I live (Florida in the midst of the housing collapse) and can see the recession which has been going on for two years while the government hides it with phony statistics from the public's view; I too am certain that the juniors will certainly shine at some point.

I do not know for certain, as I see Russell's point (1) and that of Sinclair (2), whether we will have another good run before the slow season of summer or whether the market will take off (3) because of current economic conditions and just go in spite of seasonality.

The entire banking system of the USA is insolvent; period. Perhaps the FED can manage to hide the situation, but maybe they cannot.

If the US dollar continues to tank, gold will have to go up in dollar terms and at some point the juniors will follow (explosively). Look at a long term chart of the US dollar going back to 1980 or thereabouts. There is a huge head and shoulders top formation with the head at 120 and the neckline at 80. That projects a drop in the dollar to 40 on the $USD index (Sinclair by his own methods posts 52). The dollar sliced through the neckline and has not even made a decent attempt to go back up and kiss the neckline good-bye before it's plunge; it is just going straight down.

The US runs a deficit in cash basis accounting of somewhere in the neighborhood of 9 trillion dollars. When O'Neill was treasury secretary he asked that an accounting be done according to GAAP (accrual basis) and found that the unfunded liabilities with Medicare and Social Security amounted to over 50 trillion dollars. He posted the results on a website. The report was taken down within a week and the following week Mr. Snow was the new secretary of the treasury.

It isn't a question of if. It is only a question of when the US is abandoned by the world markets as there is no way the US can or will ever attempt to make good on those promises except by inflating the currency to meaninglessness. It appears they have started on that path.

When foreigners stop buying US treasuries and the bond market yields on the long end start going up for real (again think long, long term charts) it's all over.

That's my story and I'm stickin' with it. I tend to think longer term. I started off thinking shorter term (months) and now I think (years). Most of my charts of various sectors are 10 -15 year charts with very long moving averages.

Create a 10 year WEEKLY chart of $GOLD at Stockcharts .com and use an exponential moving average of 80 (weeks). You will see the chart turn from declining moving average to inclining moving average. As soon as you see an inclining moving average and the price is on the upside of it - you are in a bull market. Buy at the first supported low point and forget about it. Wouldn't you have liked to buy gold then. Obviously if it breaks the pattern you would sell but it usually doesn't. Once you have the chart set up try putting other items in it like $CCI $WTIC $COPPER etc. and you will see what INVESTORS are looking for. BUT it only works if the fundamentals back your play. You exit the position the same way in reverse.

Sorry to be so long.

P.