GOOD you are starting to think, Baires
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 27, 2008 07:10AM
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Now you are becoming less of a wanker! I was in the same boat as you, B2, focussing on hopes of more than 2MOZ. And frustrated at times that Dr.Webb is being so conservative. But his conservative style, including keeping the resource for Nick Lake and Ormsby based on a fairly tight ellipse, and not reaching out into the inferred possibilies very much, will resuilt in better economics.
As much as the high price of oil is a factor, currently out of whack due to high demand, the prospects of installing an electrical line from the dam to the mine site, as was done by Discovery Mines, is very good. Hopefully the PEA will include information on the status of negotiations with NWT Power Corp on electrical supply...
And the idea of drilling deeper, under the ormsby resource to prove more reserves, has clearly been canned. But don't forget, they did have that larger COnnors rig out there this winter. Was it at Clan Lake, proving the resource at depth? Or, perhaps they put it at Ormsby, and drilled a few deep holes to show that there is somethign there, just to wet the appetites of investors, or to support futue drill targets for mine extension once the open pit starts to reach down.
What we need, in addition to all the winter drill results, is for the 43-101 and associated maps of the location of each drill hole for ALL the centers of mineralization to be available. Then we investors can compare this to last summers reports, and see where the untold story (mine life extension a la Conn and Giant as you pointed out) likely exists. Of course Dave can't make forward looking statements on the pottential in the collection of properties, but he can and has said where the mineralization is open at depth, and the depth that was mined on adjacent mines. The mineralization being based on identical geological "DNA"...HMM, that can be understood to be that the resources will be found to reach the same depths, and so anything they drill of in the top 1/3 of the resource will be tripled at least. We will see evidence that under the measured Ormsby resource, there is 3 or 4 Moz more gold to be unearthed. Maybe even big sky will be to a similar depth.
So are you buying more stock? I am. Trouble is, I've reached a point where, with the share price still ratcheting slowly down like most other juniors, it does not look very good on my balance sheet.
Also, as I plan to buy quite a large additional amount in the fall, when some extra cash is due in, then I am in a conflict between hoping to see the share price stay low so I can accumulated more, and wanting it to firm up to keep me in the black. A compromise will ensue when us inflation starts to emerge, even beyond the rediculous Wall Street resistance to reality (they now accept they are in a recession, but are talking about it being short and looking for first signs that it's ending). But, when they do their last rate cuts, and start to talk about inflation, the POG will resume it's climb. This will steady the gold market, and bring investors in in droves. Finally, at this stage in June or so, with a PEA based on a "low" pog of about $750, and demonstrated economics, I will have lost a good chance to accumulate as our shares will be well over a dollar. (hopefully a Canadian dollar, not a US Peso).
So investors on this site, get your eye back on the ball and look at the documents on the TYHEE web site in more detail. Then google and seek documents in the public domain that confirm that TDC is progressing as per the benchmarks we've discussed... Be reasurred that there will be at least one, likely two, TDC gold mines in the Yellowknife Gold Belt in a few years. Do you want to have $400 for each 1000 ounces of gold produced? That would require you to have 180,000 shares or so. Or if you base it on PE, with just 100,000 oz / year of production (an early rate that would be expanded soon after production starts), we would have a share price of about $4 or 5. But wait, by that time we'll have more resources proven, and mine life extension as well as increasing production in the pipe, and this will be priced into the share price (the markets are perfect, after all), so we'll see the share price accelerate to something based on 400 or 500 thousand ounces per year. And wait, the POG in 2 or 3 years, with an inflation spiral just raming up through 8% or so, the POG will be well over $1000. So the earnings will accelrate as each increase in the POG with a gold producer is directly accretive to earnings, as the costs of production were already paid, and the increased POG costs no more to produce, so then we see a share price over $20, working on $30 or 40. And as these are not 2008 dollars, but 2011 or so dollars, it'l be higher nominally, such as $40 or $50 US ($35 to $45 CDN).
So in that case, maybe i'll be better off having 2/1000th of the company? And buy another 180,000 shares. But then, when I can afford to do that, it'll be the fall and that will cost me about $350,000.
Whereas today, I could buy that for less than $100,000. (I know, you cant buy 350,000 shares without incresing the price, due to Occam's razor.
Hey, anyubody want to lend me $100,000? I'll pay you back in a year! (Just kidding).
Sorry about the rant, but my rambling above is why this risk taker is still confident that TDC is the story for me. Not to mention that I am still up here in Yellowknife, and watching the local activity for signs that the plan is unfolding as it should, and that there have been no geologists thrown out of helicopters, no native protiests blocking the ice road, and not mud slides (sorry, CSM).
Everything is as it should be. But I would like to see more updates and more operational information published on the company website.
HANG in everybody, and sleuth for evidence supporting our confidence in an actual, producing mine emerging on OUR properties.
Treat this as a marriage, not as a night with a hooker.
SKELEG