Thing is, even without the technical analysis (although if I were an analyst, I'm sure I'd agree with you):

1) Recession in the world's largest economy (U.S.). Still a lot of denial, and still a lot of writedowns taking place, and these are still being billed as somehow positive. Despite what the analysts on BNN say, I don't think the worst is over.

2) Recession in the world's second largest economy (Japan) same stuff going on there as in the U.S., as a result of Yen carry trade investments unwinding. To put it simply, theyhave a lot of bad loans

3) Chinese markets, always known for volatility, down 50% on the year. A lot of investors and corporations hurting there. Less of an export market with Japan and U.S. China has also been artificially stimulating the economic development in preparation for the Beijing Olympics. When the Olympics are over, there will be a slump.

4) Britain in a housing crisis, heading into a recession.

5) Canada is not as bad off so far, but we will inevitably slow down. U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, and Japan is a significant trading partner. It's naive to think that recessions in those two economies won't affect us.

6) The U.S. Fed has hit the wall with what it can and will do about the situation. Not much farther to go down. Not much ammunition to buoy up the economy in the next crisis.

JP has me convinced. We're in the creamy middle right now. There's the illusion of everything being better, but how can all of these major banks write down tens of billions of dollars, take on billions of dollars of share dilution, and still turn a profit? Answer: They can't turn a profit for another year or so. Even then, they will be so dilute their profit margins will be lousy. They will have to continue tightening belts. The wheels that grease the economy (easy loans) won't be there.

The economy of the U.S., and of much of the world will stagnate for the next year at least. Even the corporations with multinational exposure will slow down.

The markets, and most of the analysts/investment managers, are being incredibly short sighted right now. How can they ignore a global slowdown staring them in the face, and talk about exposure to multinational corporations? I think that the patterns they are used to trading in will betray them. Too few of them remember the 1970's.

Doom and gloom, long term bullish for gold, and still hanging in there with Tyhee.

MR