Here are a few thoughts about the eBay premiums people are now paying:

I have studied for years the premiums paid for silver on eBay, and one thing I have noticed is that when they become very extreme, it means silver is deeply oversold and will SNAP! back. That's what's happened so far since the low 12's. When the premium is less extreme, we are actually closer to the real value of silver. A failure to confirm the lower price shown on the Comex within several days' time means that the price is a manipulated one. Yes, eBay prices are ironically closer to the real value of silver than the Comex one, because large players with lots of money are moving price. Ebay is too small for them, and CANNOT be manipulated to the downside. A buyer can either buy or not buy.

The premium exists because there exists a shortage of silver in the market. The most severe shortage is in silver eagles. The premium exists because people want immediate delivery and don't trust the delivery times posted by dealers (some mints keep people waiting months, as in the case of Northwest Territorial Mint). When the music stops, there will be a default in the silver market, because more silver has been promised and paid for than can physically be delivered.

There are now paid bashers roaming the Yahoo boards disclaiming this premium who have never sold a single thing on eBay. they will try to insinuate themselves into your good graces, so that you will trust and believe them. They may attack my argument using the wholesale analogy - that just because you pay more retail than wholesale, there is no shortage.

Here's why it's false. The reason why people get cheaper prices wholesale is because they are buying in bulk and giving up something of value - money that could have been spent differently in the future. In this case, eBay buyers are also getting something of value - immediate delivery, as required by eBay, but NOT required of the private mints and dealers of bullion. Trust is failing. The time value of money is high in a time of inflation and rising risk of default.

This is the story that tells a tale of shortage, and the manipulators are attempting to disguise that reality.

Sell the ETFs and get physical while you can. Watch the paid bashers get hysterical.