Final Thought for the week
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 10, 2008 12:19PM
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All,
I am exhausted, mentally, physically, and emotionally from these last two weeks. I am disgusted to see the manipulation in the precious metals, the outright socialism being recommended by mainstream media, and the absolute raping that anyone who has owned quality gold in the ground in the form of juniors has taken over the last few months.
I think many of us often wish that we had listened to that one newsletter writer, or that one friend, who told us not to buy these companies right now, but to wait. In hindsight, they were right, we would have been better waiting and buying at these ultra-depressed levels.
Yet there will always be someone who is right on the timing. Ask enough people and someone will correctly call the roll of the dice. There is always someone who guesses correctly, and that is what they did. They guessed. They could have just as easily been wrong. Gold could have passed $1000 when it got close in July and we would have never looked back. But the powers that be capped it, took it down.
To add insult to injury, when the overall stock market crashed in the last month due to fundamental problems in the economy, which we all knew would happen (if even only in real terms), for some reason our miners got caught in the panic and levereged sells that a stock market crash forces.
The problems with the fundamental parts of the economy that we all saw, the problems that led us to not buy condos in Miami in 2005, and then to realize that the housing bubble was part of a bigger problem, and that it was a symptom of the bubble in our entire debt society... those problems still exist. We were right about those, and we came to invest in precious metals because we saw what was coming. We understood that the Federal Reserve would print as much money as needed to rescue their own member banks, and that we would all pay through debasement of our currency. We also learned that, if our currency would be debased, gold would go higher, and that one way to not only preserve but to enhance our wealth would be to own gold in the ground, these juniors, for their future value.
Anyway, that is how I came to this point. I suspect that is how many of you got here too.
Personally, I spent a lot of time and money learning about mining and the risks and rewards of investing in the sector before I started to buy. I followed all the advice of the experts. I bought on significant pullbacks of at least 30% from previous highs. I did not use margin. I averaged in, perhaps a bit too quickly, but still I averaged. I bought defined deposits, in politically stable jurisdictions, with good management, and with blue sky potential. I bought companies that strong hands were holding. In the end, when I bought at 30% off, thinking I had gotten a great deal, it turned out to be a nightmare, as most of the companies have since fallen another 50-90%.
Today, watching gold and especially silver get annihilated, I began to irrationally doubt everything I had spent years learning and what I know to be true.
Yet, I still know it to be true. I don't know if we will experience a Weimar-type hyperinflation here, but I know it is going to be a very high level of inflation at least equal to that of the 70's. In so many ways, our economy is worse than in the 70's though, and when I see what we are doing now I know the inflation will be worse.
I never expected to simply buy a few shares in this company or any other and instantly become rich. Yet, I didn't think that I would be so right on the overall state of the economy, yet suffer such massive losses in my investments that were primarily designed to protect me. I am going to spend a significant portion of the weekend reviewing history, some literature on mining, and try to re-convince myself that what I am doing is correct. I expect that I will.
This group is a great network to have, and I imagine the day not too long from now when it is even better to have, as we are able to offer congradulations to one another, instead of condolences.
My final thought is that typically, when I reach capitulation and am one mouse-click away from selling, which is almost where I was today, that typically marks a bottom, as I always seem to sell at exactly the wrong moment when I try to time markets. Let's hope that's where we are today.
Hysteria