Re: What exactly IS HYPERINFLATION?
posted on
Oct 26, 2008 03:40AM
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Can't ever see things getting this bad in the US/UK in the near future. Zimbabwe suffers from a completely incompetent government (Hmmm...makes you wonder) which through its land reform policies crippled the major productive sector of its economy, i.e. it is unable to produce anything of value like food.
What we need in the debt ridden West is good dose of double digit inflation in prices for a few years like we had in the 1970's with wages rising in line and the currency depreciating at a similar rate against the Asian economies to bring things back into balance. Then you give the people the bad news that they can't get their social security until they're 70 (likewise with public sector pensions) and things start to look a bit better. Property prices get back in line with wages and can start rising again at double digit rates which makes us all feel good (hopefully they regulate mortgage lending this time to prevent a bubble).
I like to use the rule of 72 to work these things out. Pick a number of years during which you want your liabilities to halve and divide 72 by that number and you get the rate of inflation/devalution you need to do the job. For example, 18% for 4 years halves the real value your liabilities. After 8 years it's reduced by 75%. This will be what the governments are trying to engineer, i.e. a managed depreciation of the Western currencies to bringing living standards in the West and Asian more into line.
Gold went from $35 to $850 in the 1970s under such a scenario so we don't need a Zimbabwe like collapse for our gold stock to fly. Property also went up in the 70's which I would expect it to after the current correction.
The other thing to bear in mind is Peak Oil and how that plays out. I believe we're already on the "bumpy plateau" and getting the world economy to grow with declining energy supplies is going to be very difficult. Double digit inflation will help to mask this lack of growth as no-one can properly work out what is going on which suits the PTB.
In summary, I agree with Buffet when he predicted stagflation with plenty of stag and plenty of 'flation. Gold, oil and, when the time is right, high yielding real estate (in sustainable locations like small market towns with rail links, think Peak Oil...) funded with fixed rate debt are the plays that will do well in that environment.
After that I think we have a Peak Oil induced depression starting about 2015 as we drop off the edge of the bumpy plateau. Then the hyperinflation kicks in as Government print to try and stimulate demand but there is no response because there is no energy to fuel growth. That's when you need land, horticultural knowledge, and a pair of oxen, i.e. make like the Cubans did after the Soviets cut their oil off in the early 1990's.