Baires, If I believed that the current economic crisis would play out like the last one, it would be a pretty easy play. I'd be completly short now. I might have some gold but certainly not in a safety deposit box. I don't know if I'd have gold miners... that is because I only know of one mine, Homestake, that did very well. I don't have any data on any others. Well for that matter, i don't even have data on Homestake... I have hearsay but I trust it enough.

This is as unique of an economic crisis as the depression was when it hit. The depression was a crisis like no other before it and thus far, none since. There were market crashes. There were depressions but nothing exactly like the great depression.

The world has changed so much since the depression and those who will manage this crisis have that and other situations to draw upon. I'm not sure how it's going to manifest itself but I am sure it won't end up exactly like the great depression.

Think of it like war. When WW1 started, most people thought it was going to last 6 months. They hadn't seen a major conflict in europe in anyone's lifetime and there was hardly a soldier in any of the engaged armies who had seen battle at all. WW1 wasn't even close to anything seen before. Machines like tanks and airplanes had never been used in war nor had gas or long range missles, modern machine guns. 20 million people died. I mean this was something out of everyones worst nightmare...

The along comes WW2 and people do have WW1 to compare it to but it far exceeds ww1 in it's scope and horror. Tactics used in fighting ww1 were useless in WW2. The world had changed in between. Technology had changed. Yes, they were both world wars and yes they were both devestating but they were very different beasts. One war was fought almost entirely in trenches in Europe with a little action in the air and see, the other truly globally, on land, sea and in the air, 2 1/2 times the deaths, the bomb... I mean, the two wars are really hardly comparable other than the fact that they were each big wars with europe at the epicenter.

That will be about the extent of similarities between this economic crisis and the depression. Expect a couple of economic nuclear missles to drop on a few countries... but don't expect the expected.