OK, this has more to do with precious metals in general rather than gold and TDC, but it could be the beginning of a reversal in the entire precious metal/commodity complex if it flows from some fundamental movement.

This is the classic declining bullish wedge I was talking about earlier today. Watch for a break out of the upper downslope, somewhere in the next week or so, to above $9.50. After a couple days and a retest of that figure, the breakout target would be somewhere between $14-15 in the next few weeks.

For the skeptics, I am not pulling this out of my @$$. Rob McHugh called the pattern yesterday and it looks spot on to me.

Of course, we all know technicals and fundamentals suck in this environment. I, too, will believe it when I see it.

But, unless silver is going to $0, this has a good of a chance at being one of the first commodities to start a reversal as any. Especially considering it broke down before gold, it may break up before gold as well.

The definition of the pattern (from stockcharts.com):

1. Prior Trend: To qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the falling wedge will form after an extended downtrend and mark the final low. The pattern usually forms over a 3-6 month period and the preceding downtrend should be at least 3 months old.
2. Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be lower than the previous highs.
3. Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be lower than the previous lows.
4. Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge to form a cone as the pattern matures. The reaction lows still penetrate the previous lows, but this penetration becomes shallower. Shallower lows indicate a decrease in selling pressure and create a lower support line with less negative slope than the upper resistance line.
5. Resistance Break: Bullish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the resistance line is broken in convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Once resistance is broken, there can sometimes be a correction to test the newfound support level.

Hysteria