A different perspective, why we got our clocks cleaned
posted on
Dec 07, 2008 01:17PM
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I thought I might give my perspective of how I look at the way things have unfolded with the credit crisis. I am reading the posts on the site lately and the frustration level with the market, and frustration performance of our portfolios(Tyhee)and frustration with FSN is quite obvious.
I think I know why most of us are so frustrated. We have all been quite aware that there was a financial crisis coming. We saw the credit crisis building in the housing market. We saw a large bubble building and knew how it would unfold. It has unfolded just as we thought it would. The bubble poped, banks failed and the Fed has began to drop money from helicopters. We bought bullion, gold stocks, oil stocks in our portfolios in the hope of not only protecting our portfolios but profiting from the crisis. Right?
Here is the current rub. It chaps us to no end that after seeing this credit crisis coming, adjusting our porfolios, and preparing for the worst, we are getting our clocks cleaned just like the person who was clueless, had no ideas this was coming and did nothing to protect themselves. That just is not fair!
I ask myself this question, would I really have invested in treasuries and money markets 6 months ago in anticipation of the coming crisis? Before this started would I have invested in hopes of 0% return just happy my returns were not dropping. We all saw it coming, BUT I invested in the hope of benefiting from a inflation I thought would come first. I invested thinking the dollar would fall, inflation would soar and gold and oil would explode. Prechters deflation theory was all over FSN, but I choose the inflation first portfolio. Why? there was much more upside in the inflation theory verses Prechters defaltion theory. Simple greed. the oldest motive in the book.
I still think inflation is going to be the investment of the future. I chose the inflation first, now i have to either change course or stay with my convictions. In my own investing since 2000 I never only invest in stocks, balance is the key, bullion, stocks, a business
Rams