Baires,To be honest I cant see a good reason for it to go back down that far, as such you dont anticipate 50% retracements but if they happen you know they are not the end of the world, I dont know enough about cycles but even Tim Wood says that cycles can exaust themselves early, or 2 years later everyone will just say it was a left translated cycle. "great"

Using Bob Hoye's work we should be having a rally in everything until Mar/Apr, and then after that gold should be doing its thing, the only nightmare scanario I see is that gold goes down to the low 600's but oil is at 30 and the Dow is at 5000. In that scenario the real cost of gold is going up & people will be piling into gold stocks as every other sector will have bombed "win win"