Prospects for 2009
posted on
Dec 24, 2008 07:06AM
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This has been quite a ride, and I wonder who are the voices in the wilderness now? Are Mark Faber and Peter Schiff still the best of the not-listened to?
Is is as simple as the printing press / debt monitization that a fall in the US dollar is a certainty for 2009? Or can it continue to defy logic, like my Coyote running his legs desperately as he is suspended in air, after goig off a cliff? He will surely fall, gravity can be tricked momentarily, but wins in the end.
Gold has held up very well during this crisis, and it seems that more and more "smart" money is talking about gold, gold miners, and gold juniors. I don't know about the US, but January - February are RRSP season in Canada, and some people still have jobs. I believe that there will be some substantial money flows into precious metals funds during RRSP Season. The PM fund managers have their favorits, but allocate cash to a broad range of stocks. Juniors like Tyhee will get a small slice of this pie. But as we have seen, a small bump in volume makes a big difference. On days when I've bought 30 ro 40 K shares, it makes me feel like a market maker! Small cash infusions make a difference in the SP.
So in January, with capitulation still to occur in the stock market, we will see one of two scenarios. Markets fall further and have capitulation, followed by an Obama Rally around inauguration day, or the opposite, we see a rally in jan, but then doom and gloom as the reality of the crisis that Obama is inheriting comes into the fore, that it will take a year or two before we see growth start up again.
In both cases, it seems that gold / us dollar relationship is the key. Low oil prices won't last long, iether, as it's deeply oversold. So it seems that we have a good couple of months ahead for us.
http://www.pdac.ca/pdac/conv/index.html
Then we have the PDAC March 1-4 in Toronto. I think I'll go to this one, this time. It may well be a lot of fun. Enthusiasm for juniors may be just picking up. Investors have had such a bad run lately, that they are probably eager to get in on a good thing.
If our SP has started to return to sane valuations, along with the Junior sector (rising tide lifts all ships), then Dave Webb may have something to work with, and generate some interest in the prospects of tyhee.
2009 may well see us break the $100,000,000 market cap, get listed on TSX, get analysts rating us, and get on with the business of buildling a mine.
My predictions don't seem to have had much of a track record, but I remain convinced that this is a good investment. The low SP lately has been quite an opportunity, and I've taken advantage of it. I'm still buying, whenever I get a windfall, and plan to buy all the way up through about 60 cents.
Here's to Tyhee! Merry Christamas, and a happy and prosperous New Year!
SKELEG