jr98118

Thanks.

I think that in a free market (which as you mention we don't have) they are of some value in projecting an approximation of the results of the long term trend such as the one that was posted by ValueKAT. Incidentally that particular graph and plot that was corrected and sharpened up a bit in a later post on JSmineset. It was made a bit later in time (closer to 2013) and slightly higher before it went vertical.

But where I find the french curve particularly valueable is in tracing out the bottom trendine of an established "rhino horn." Because it trends exponentially higher as does the human emotion involved it makes a clear cut sell signal when broken. Further it tends to get you out much closer to the top than would a straight line trend channel.

There is great danger in not respecting a "break" in the short term figuring that the longer term line will have you covered. It is very difficult if not impossible to tell just what the correction will do. My tendency is to make just that mistake and get back in too early. I just did that with PGH (Canadian oil trust). I got out right at the top of the recent run-up but got back in much too early. I realized it was an index rebalancing run-up but on that stock I tend to have a "stay in it" bias. Now I have to wait for the price of oil to go up a bit and take the stock up with it. At least with that stock I get paid 15% while I wait for it to get back into trading range for me again.

P.