Dr Webb survives the SKELEG inquisition
posted on
Jan 26, 2009 11:26AM
(PRESS PROFILE TAB FOR FACT SHEET & UPDATES)
First, part two the the Cambridge House show. I did not spend much time there today, and missed Sprott's presentation. So if anybody else took it in, please post a summary.
The CH people told me that 7,000 registered participants, vice 5,000 anticipated. Only 207 displays vice 420 or so last year. Consistent with cash conservation on the one hand, and increasing interest in recent weeks by investors, on the other.
That's all I have to say about that.
Next, the SKELEG inquistion. I went back to the head office and Dave Webb was available. I prefaced my comments that I would post a summary on Agoracom after the discussion.
I had 5 main questiosn: T, T, T, G, V. All of what follows is my understanding of the situation, now better informed by what DW told me. However, this is not a record of what he said, but rather what I udnerstood. So if there are any errors or misinterpretation, it's due to my own lack of understanding - not what he said.
1. Turtle. The question was how much cash does Tyhee now now, and how long are we going to be in turle mode. DW made reference to what has been announced / filed as having been true at that time. As for how long, they have enough for a considerable time, and the expectation seems to me to be that this mode will be necessary for a year.
2. Tonnes. I was following up on the tonage that can be accommodated at the Winter Lake talings site. A very good discussions ensued, as I was askign about the newly added ounces (Clan Lake) and other yet to be added ounces, how does this increased volume fit into the volume now in the EA process as per the Oct 2008 scoping study with MVLWB. What I learned was that mined ore has a 20% swell factor. So once they fill up the winter lake (10 million tonnes), where will the rest go? Into the stopes. By that time, after say 5 million tonnes has been piled into winter lake, they will be well into underground mining. So if say another 5 million tonnes is taken out from underground, then 4 million tonnes of that can fit back into the stopes, and only 1 more million tonnes have to go to winter lake. Furthermore, the life of the mine will see continual increasees in the need to pile up the waste material, but these applications are treated differently than the origianl plan, as it's part of a going concern (mine) rather than the starting conditions of pristine wilderness. But the main thing is that much of the material goes back into stopes, not into a pit as that creates engineering problems.
3. Timelines. Where are we in teh EA, Feas, DAR, water licenses etc. The MVLWB gets back to Tyhee on issues raised in the scopiing study/ meetins back from OCT. See my post on EA issues, where I provided a link to the minutes of that meeting. The MVLWB is getting back to Tyhee on thise issues within weeks. This informaiton firms up what the DAR has to address. If there are no big surprises, this DAR submission by Tyhee, perhaps as soon as September, provides the company's plan to address these issues. If the DAR satisfactorily addresses the issues, then there is a 60 day timeline for reply. That 60 days is likely to be longer, as the Gvt does not always keep to these limits, is new concerns are raised, then they are thrown back at Tyhee and teh DAR had to be revised, and perhaps public hearings to resolve the issues. For example, maybe Tyhee addresses everything they learn of from MVLWB form the scopping study, but suddently they are asked to do multi-year studies on caribou-counts. This can delay the licence a long time, but could be addressed trough pulbic hearings, as not all questions are realistic or necessary. Someone could ask about the effect of global warming in Antartica (my scneario), but that woudl nto be realistic and could be removed from the requirements thorugh the hearings consultating and supporting research etc. But once all the issues are addressed in the DAR, we meet a key milestone, as it then goes for final assessment with the GVT.
This leads to the issuance of a water use permit / permit to discharge. This is another key milestone, as the operaiton of the mine is all hinged on the permission to discharge water. The chemistry of the tailings is a key aspect of this, and addressed in the baseline studies (in hand an others) that the companuy has to achieve in terms of the PH of the tailigns water discharged, etc. While there are a lot of other requlaitons which the mine construction and operation have to fulfill, such as workplace safety, environmetal protection measures, piling of waste materails, buildign of roads etc, these are considered to be simple critera wich can be planned for in the mine design.
So that second milestone is key, the water permit. Note: I have posted the occasional water permit that Tyhee has in regard to drilling/exploaration, and followed thorugh on the inspections by MVLWB to ensure that they are keeping the drill sites clean, cleanign up any small oil spills etc. Soame thing only much larger scale for the mine.
A discussion on the risk of an envionmental complaint about using winter lake rather than some above ground location was very instructive. DW's PHD work included a project (other than his thesis) on tailings disposal and storage. The issue for some environmetalists is whether storage below water level is more dangerous than outside of water table. An example was a geologist who was doing his PHD on this at UBC who quit and bacame a protestor at a site in Prince Rupert so some such place, causing delays in a plan to pile tailings in a place below water. Whereas DW contends that in water (such as in Winter lake) is better in term sof the PH and other aspects of water quality and the way that the tailings acutally take away the acid betwr over time in water than above water. This PHD protestor eventually learned more about it and switched to become an advoacat of in-water storage and has made a presentation on this issue in Yellowkinfe (which presumably DFO and other officals have attended). So the key here is that once it is clear than Winter Lake is goign to be the preferred option for tailings (by MVLWB), then more work can proceed on the mine plan as it's costly to plan several alterntatives at the same time. Again, this benchmark could be achieved by Sept (my words). If so, then modelling of hwo the mine will look can advance better, and as it will be in the DAR, it will be public information. This leads to my next issue:
4. Gucci. Investor relations is, understandably at this time, taking a backseat to workign on the EA - DAR process. My own view is that we need a gucci presentation shwoing the mine, in 3 d, withthe open pits, the underground stopes, and the ore bodies. (eventually). As this shows investors what is being built, and is good for our (current) insecurity and SP / valuation. They have such models in their computers now, of course, and you can glean some of it from the NI 43-101 reports and the PA, however my view is that when this is out on the street as part of the DAR, and the issue of winter lake is resolved in that way, we'll see that type of gucci (and costly) presentiaton avaialble. Key milestone in getting the story out there, but not worth the cost until then.
5. Venture. I wanted to know if there is any change to the vision of teh company, and receptivity to Joint Ventures or buy out. I expressed the view of myself and a group of my personal contacts who have invested in Tyhee (about a million shares or so) and those who share my perspective here on Agoracom, is tha twe don't want a buyout. We would like a 49% JV as it accelerates things. But DW reafirmed that 100% tyhee ownership is the plan. A JV would be looked at, but only if it made financial sense. It would be taken to shareholders, and key shareholders want (my words) 100% tyhee. Financing is not so difficult as we might have thought. They would need to raise about 50 million in equity (shares issued at at ime when the company is better valued), and the rest in debt. Once the company has a feasability study and a water license, it will be better valued and able to raise the money. I saw no doubts in Dave when we discussed this. He also mentioned that a compnay in quebec went right into financing based only on the resource and a PA, but that a Feas is more likely to be required.
Other points. The AGM is coming soon, and that's why the auditors are there. Shareholders who tick "yes' on the form where they ask if thier names can be given to the compnay, appear on alist of registered shareholders. Otherwise, their brokerage (such as TD bank, RBC, Bof M et) appears to own millions of shares, but actually it's just us little investors. As Dave and Roger and others who started TYhee no longer have a controlling nubmer of shares, the AGM has become much more real in terms of actual voting to permit the company to follow it's plan. So my intention is to vote when I get my AGM package, and to be a registered shareholder (I am).
An analysit with Haywood securities has been given the Tyhee presentation / briefing. This may mean that an analysits' recommendation may be coming.
The objectives for teh Round Up (later this week at the Bayshore inn), are about networking with financers, engieners, peole involved in the environmenatal and other consultancies, regulatory issues etc. This is as I thought before that it's big leagues, for companies that will acutally become producers.
The price of gold today is not that relevant, as long as it will be solid in a couple of years. The SP today is not relevant, but will be relevant later in the year. They hope to se the company valued at $35 / oz (soon, such as Sept in my view) and $100 or so once more progress on the DAR / mine paln etc / financing etc are achieved.
My own conclustion from the SKELEG inquisition is that this company has an excellent, frugal team that intend to bring the mine on line, to then beccome very large at first by virtue of the many millions more oucnes to be discovered in the YGP (my estiamte is 10 moz and nothing DW said changed that view), adn to acquire otehr properties and small juniors.... One day small juniors will hope to be looked at by tyee. I belive that the personal investment of energy and personal / family money into the Tyhee / YGP vision is Dave Webb's and Rogers personal retirement plan. Their only plan, no other eggs in that basket. This gives me confidence inthe plan.
I also met Roger and talked with him a bit, but then left as they are busy today.
I was very pleased that they took the time to discuss at lenght all of my questions. There was no hint of hype or of excess optimism. There was quiet confidence, clear competence, and that same spirit I saw in my Aug visit to the mine site that this is going to be a mine.
So take home: Benchamarks are:
1. Requirements from MVLWB to be addressed by the DAR. This could be in Feb.
2. Decision on Winter Lake.
3. DAR submission (could be Sept in my view).
4. SP reflecting $35/oz: say 40 or 45 cents a share.
5. SP reflecting $100 per oz. $1.00 per share.
6. DAR requires changes, perhaps a few delays and surprises and hearings, but this all results in DAR acceptance and submitting to Govt for premier's signautre. If this is done by years end, that would be nice (,my view).
7. Concurrent progress in IR, financing, Feasability etc. (by Dec).
8. Water use permit! Construction dates / scheduled set. Procure equipment and personnel / contract/ finaincing for deploying equipment and materials Winter 2010 (Feb - April 2011 ice road haul). * there could be developments on part way - all-weather road beign built by Gvt. A complex discussion I won't get into until I find some public information on this. A slueting prize I'll give whoever finds it.
9. Company valued by forward earnings based on getting into production at 160,000 oz / year, valued in 2011 for 2012 first dore.
So we are 2 years (my view) away from starting to build this puppy, and 3 years away from a $10.00 plus stock, 100% Tyhee owned sitting on 10 million ounces.
These are my own views, but based on my enterogation of DW and subjected to further evaluation by any of you who understand this stuff better.
I am going to be so rich.
Somebody want to sleuth Haywood securities and find out if anybody is rating Tyhee soon????
SKELEG